体育彩票业的区域经济贡献、耦合关联与市场前景--基于西北地区2007-2021时间序列数据实证  

Regional Economic Contribution,Coupling Relationship and Market Prospect of Sports Lottery Industry:Empirical Study Based on the Time Series Data of 2007-2021 in Northwest China

作　　者：王聃 何胜保[2] 刘斌 王晓 王明森 WANG Dan;HE Shengbao;LIU Bin;WANG Xiao;WANG Mingsen(Department of Physical Education,Northwest University of Political Science and Law,Xi'an 710061,China;Department of Physical Education,Tangshan Normal University,Tangshan 063000,China;Sports Department,Nanjing University of Science and Technology,Nanjing 210094,China;School of Marxism,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]西北政法大学体育部,陕西西安710061 [2]唐山师范学院体育系,河北唐山063000 [3]南京理工大学体育部,江苏南京210094 [4]西安交通大学马克思主义学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《体育学研究》2022年第5期74-84,共11页Journal of Sports Research

基　　金：2021年陕西省社会科学基金项目(2021Q012);2022年陕西省体育局常规课题项目(2022333);2021年中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(21lzujbkydx049)。

摘　　要：以近15年(2007—2021年)西北五省体育彩票业与各经济指标纵向时间序列数据为分析依据,借助经济学、统计计量学分析方法,通过建立回归方程、单位根检验、误差修正模型、数据无量纲化与绝对差值处理、GM(1,1)模型和残差序列模型,探索体育彩票对区域第三产业经济发展指数贡献弹性、耦合关联度,并对未来发展前景做出预测研判。主要研究结论:西北地区体育彩票对第三产业经济增长的贡献弹性为0.09737;区域经济指标与体育彩票业耦合关联度排序为,收入法生产总值>地方财政支出>地方财政收入>居民总消费>城镇就业人员平均工资>GDP>人均GDP>城镇居民人均可支配收入>城镇居民人均消费支出;未来5年西北地区体育彩票消费仍处于高水平状态,呈递增趋势,发展市场前景较好。Based on the longitudinal time series data of sports lottery industry and economic indicators in five provinces of northwest China in recent 15 years(2007—2021),with the help of analysis methods in economics and statistical metrology,this paper explores the contribution elasticity of sports lottery to the economic development index and the coupling correlation degree of regional tertiary industry,and offers prediction and judgment on the future development through the establishment of regression equation,unit root test,error correction model,data dimensionless and absolute difference processing,GM(1,1)model and residual series model.The following conclusions can be drawn from the present study:the contribution elasticity of sports lottery to the economic growth of the tertiary industry in northwest China is 0.09737;The order of the coupling correlation between regional economic indicators and sports lottery industry is as follows:GDP with income approach>local fiscal expenditure>local fiscal revenue>total consumption of residents>average wage of urban employees>GDP>per capita GDP>per capita disposable income of urban residents>per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents;In the next five years,the consumption of sports lottery in northwest China is still at a high level,showing an increasing trend,and the market prospect is believed to be favorable.

关 键 词：体育彩票业 区域经济 耦合关联 西北地区 第三产业 

分 类 号：G812[文化科学—体育学] F224[经济管理—国民经济] F719.5F127