乌克兰危机升级对日俄关系的影响及其未来走向  

The Influence of Ukraine Crisis Escalation on Japan-Russia Relations and Its Future Trend

作　　者：潘万历 白如纯[2] Pan Wanli;Bai Ruchun

机构地区：[1]外交学院国际关系研究所 [2]中国社会科学院日本研究所

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2022年第5期53-64,166,167,共14页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

摘　　要：乌克兰危机升级后,日本紧随欧美对俄采取了一系列制裁措施,体现出鲜明的“挺乌反俄”立场。日本的举动引起了俄罗斯的强烈反制,导致两国关系跌入冰点。岸田政府对俄采取强硬立场是国内外多种因素综合作用的结果。一方面,在安倍对俄外交路线受挫的背景下,岸田文雄亟需借此重塑日本对俄外交政策,为长期执政奠定基础;另一方面,此举也有分担同盟责任,借机联合西方国家向中国施压的目的。俄乌冲突对日俄关系造成严重冲击,日本已不再将俄罗斯视为合作伙伴,而将其视为“需要应对的课题”。由于日本发展日俄关系的动力被严重削弱,加之日本国内对俄舆论趋于强硬以及受日美同盟等外在因素的影响,未来,除非俄罗斯在涉及日本国家利益的问题上作出重大实质性让步,否则日俄关系恐难以改善。After the escalation of the Ukraine crisis,Japan followed Europe and the United States to take a series of sanctions against Russia,reflecting a clear position of“supporting Ukraine and opposing Russia”.Japan’s action caused a strong reactionfrom Russia,leading to the freezing point of bilateral relations.The strong stance takenby the Kishida’s government towards Russia is the result of the comprehensive effect ofvarious factors at home and abroad.On the one hand,in the context of Abe’sdiplomatic frustration with Russia,Fumio Kishida urgently needs to take thisopportunity to reshape Japan’s foreign policy towards Russia and lay the foundation forlong-term governance;On the other hand,this move also has the purpose of sharingthe responsibility of the alliance and taking the opportunity to unite with Westerncountries to put pressure on China.The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has had aserious impact on Japan-Russia relations.Japan no longer regards Russia as a partner,but as a“subject to be dealt with”.As Japan’s impetus for developing Japan-Russiarelations has been seriously weakened,and domestic public opinion towards Russia hasbecome tough,as well as the influence of external factors such as the Japan-USalliance,unless Russia makes major substantive concessions on issues involvingJapan’s national interests,Japan-Russia relations may be difficult to improve in thefuture.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 日俄关系 领土问题 和平条约 

分 类 号：D831.3[政治法律—政治学] D851.2[政治法律—外交学]