熵权-TOPSIS法在海外页岩气资源选区中的应用  

Application of Entropy-TOPSIS Method in Overseas Shale Gas Resource Selection

作　　者：徐钰 郭瑞 XU Yu;GUO Rui(CNOOC Research Institute,Beijing 100028,China;CNOOC Int’l ltd.,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]中海油研究总院,北京100028 [2]中国海洋石油国际有限公司,北京100101

出　　处：《价值工程》2022年第32期151-153,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：页岩气作为一种非常规油气资源未来开发潜力巨大,在加快我国页岩气资源开发的同时应积极进入国际市场,配合国家能源“走出去”战略。本文针对海外页岩气资源区风险评估方法进行研究,首先将海外页岩气资源开发过程中常见的风险划分为五大类,对五大类风险指标采用熵权法计算客观权重,得到客观权重后结合层次分析法对其进行修正,进而得出各指标的综合权重;其次引入基于接近度大小的理想点法(TOPSIS)对海外页岩气资源区进行风险评估;最后选取10个页岩气资源区进行了实证分析。分析结果表明本文所述方法对于页岩气资源选区有良好的应用效果。实际工作中进行风险评估时,石油公司可以在此模型的基础上,根据各自的发展规划进行针对性的分析,适当调整评价指标及取值,结合本文量化分析结果,从而更好的指导风险决策。Shale gas,as a promising unconventional gas resource,set off a huge potential for future development.To cooperate with the national energy strategy of"going out",NOC should make a big push into the international market while quickening the development of shale gas resources in China.This paper research the risk assessment methods for overseas shale gas resources area.Firstly,we divide the common risk in the process of overseas shale gas resources development into five categories and adopt the entropy weight method to solve the index objective weight,and then combined with empirical weight achieved by analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to conclude the comprehensive weight;Secondly,we use the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)as objective function to assess the risk of overseas shale gas resource areas based on the size of the close degree.Finally,10 shale gas resource areas are selected for empirical analysis.The analysis results show that the method described in this paper has a good application effect on shale gas resource selection.In the real work,oil companies can adjust the evaluation index and value of this model according to their respective development plan to better guide the risk decision.

关 键 词：海外非常规油气 页岩气开发 综合评估 熵权 TOPSIS 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]