中国数字贸易发展水平测算与动态演进分析  

Measurement and Dynamic Evolution Analysis of China’s Digital Trade Development Level

作　　者：克甝[1] 韩延玲[1] 蔡青青[2] Ke Han;Han Yanling;Cai Qingqing(School of Statistics and Data Science,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China;School of Economics and Management,Hubei University of Science and Technology,Xianning Hubei 437001,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院,乌鲁木齐830012 [2]湖北科技学院经济与管理学院,湖北咸宁437001

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第20期88-92,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72064035);新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目(21BJY040);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2020D01A36);新疆财经大学校级科研项目-高层次人才专项(2022XGC004)。

摘　　要：文章从网络基础设施、技术水平、贸易方式、贸易能力和贸易潜力五个维度构建数字贸易发展评价指标体系,基于2013—2020年31个省份的面板数据,采用熵权法测算数字贸易发展水平,并运用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计和空间Markov链对中国数字贸易发展的区域差异及分布动态进行研究。结果显示:(1)中国数字贸易发展水平整体偏低,可提升空间较大,中国数字贸易发展呈现沿海地区水平偏高、内陆次之、沿边地区水平较低的非均衡态势。(2)区域间差异是中国数字贸易发展水平差异的主要来源。(3)三大地区数字贸易发展目前均存在一定程度的梯度效应和极化问题。(4)数字贸易发展类型的动态转移在地理上并非孤岛,存在一定的“极化效应”和“涓滴效应”。This paper constructs the evaluation index system of digital trade development from five dimensions:network infrastructure,technology level,trade mode,trade capacity and trade potential.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2013 to 2020,the entropy weight method is used to calculate the development level of digital trade,and Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation and spatial Markov chain are alsoused to study the regional differences and distribution dynamics of China’s digital trade.The results are shown as follows:(1)The overall development level of China’s digital trade is relatively low,and there is a large room for improvement.The development of China’s digital trade shows an unbalanced situation of higher level in coastal areas,lower level in inland areas and low level in border areas.(2)The difference between regions is the main source of the differences of China’s digital trade development level.(3)There are certain gradient effects and polarization problems in the development of digital trade in the three regions.(4)The dynamic transfer of digital trade development type is not an isolated island geographically,but has certain“polarization effect”and“trickle effect”.

关 键 词：数字贸易 空间非均衡性 MARKOV链 核密度估计 

分 类 号：F727[经济管理—产业经济]