基于承受能力区域差异的我国农村居民水价提升空间分析  

Rural residents′ domestic water price improvement in China based on regional affordability differences

作　　者：单是豪 倪红珍[1] 汪党献 陈根发[1] SHAN Shihao;NI Hongzhen;WANG Dangxian;CHEN Genfa(Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Beijing 100038,China;General Institute of Water Resource&Hydropower Planning and Design,Ministry of Water Resource,Beijing 100020,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [2]水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京100020

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2022年第9期80-88,共9页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：水利部“水价关键问题研究”专项课题(WR0145C412019)。

摘　　要：开展农村居民水价提升空间分析可为水价改革提供依据。基于2019年我国21省区农村居民生活水费支出系数、人均可支配收入及用水指标的截面数据,将一种生活水费支出系数计量模型与灰色GM(1,1)预测模型相结合,定量估计了我国21个省区2019年、2025年、2030年及2035年农村居民水价承受能力,并进行了水价提升空间分析。结果表明,现状农村居民水价偏低,21省区平均生活水费支出系数仅为0.46%,当人均可支配收入及用水指标分别提升10%,生活水费支出将增加1.25%、6.9%;当前农村居民水价均在可承受范围内,未来5~15 a承受能力大幅提升,呈现出东北、西北和华北地区基本高于西南和华南地区的区域性规律;在不超过农村居民承受能力的情况下,从省区和地理分区视角看水价均可继续上调,相比现状水价,未来5~15 a各省区将分别出现1~3番、2~4番、3~6番的提升空间。Analysis of domestic water price improvement for rural residents can provide a basis for water price reform. Based on the cross-section data of domestic water expenditure coefficient, per capita disposable income and domestic water consumption index of rural residents in 21 provinces of China in 2019, a domestic water expenditure coefficient measurement model is combined with GM(1,1) prediction model to quantitatively estimate the domestic water price affordability of rural residents in 21 provinces of China in 2019, 2025, 2030 and 2035. The analysis of domestic water price improvement is also carried out. The results show that the current rural residents′ domestic water price is low, and the average expenditure coefficient of 21 provinces is only 0.46%. When the per capita disposable income and domestic water consumption index increase by 10% respectively, the domestic water expenditure will increase by 1.25% and 6.9%. At present, the rural residents′ domestic water price is within the affordable range, and the affordability will be greatly improved in the next 5 to 15 years, showing a regional pattern that the domestic water price in Northeast, Northwest and North China is basically higher than that in Southwest and South China. Under the condition that the domestic water price does not exceed the affordability of rural residents, the domestic water price can continue to improve from the perspective of provinces and geographical regions. Compared with the current situation, the domestic water price will increase by 1~3, 2~4, 3~6 times in each province in the next 5~15 years.

关 键 词：农村居民水价 水费支出系数 承受能力 水价提升空间 灰色预测 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]