鸭绿江流域(中国侧)蓝、绿水资源变化规律及其归因分析  

Change law and attribution analysis of blue and green water resources in the Yalu River Basin(China side)

作　　者：车睿 秦丽杰 曹书娟 CHE Rui;QIN Lijie;CAO Shujuan(School of Geography Science,Northeast Normal University,Changchun 130024,Jilin,China)

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林长春130024

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2022年第9期89-99,共11页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划-变化环境下长白山区水资源演变规律及趋势预测(2019YFC0409101)。

摘　　要：运用SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型模拟国际界河鸭绿江流域(中国侧) 1988—2017年的蓝、绿水资源量,明确其时空变化特征,并设置多种气候变化与土地利用变化情景对流域蓝、绿水资源时空变化进行归因分析。研究结果表明:(1)鸭绿江流域(中国侧)蓝、绿水资源丰富,年均蓝水资源量是绿水的1.45倍,蓝、绿水资源均有增长趋势但并不显著,季节蓝、绿水资源量均为夏季>秋季>春季>冬季;(2)鸭绿江流域(中国侧)年均蓝水资源在基准期和变化期均从上游至下游逐渐增加,而年均绿水资源则呈现从上游至下游先增后减的空间分布特征;(3)气候变化是鸭绿江流域(中国侧)蓝、绿水资源时空变化的主导因素,其对蓝、绿水资源变化量的贡献率分别为83.57%和195.51%。研究结果可为鸭绿江流域跨境水资源合理分配、国际合作提供依据。SWAT(soil and water assessment tool) model is used to simulate the amount of blue and green water resources in the Yalu River basin(China side), the international boundary river, from 1988 to 2017. The temporal and spatial change characteristics of the blue and green water resources are analysed, and then the attribution analysis is conducted by setting up a variety of climate and land use scenarios. The results show that:(1) the Yalu River basin(China side) is rich in blue and green water resources. The average annual amount of blue water resources is 1.45 times that of green water. Both blue and green water resources have an increasing trend, but it is not significant. The rank of the amount of blue and green water resources in seasons is summer > autumn > spring > winter;(2) the average annual blue water resources in the Yalu River Basin(China side) gradually increase from upstream to downstream in the base period and change period, while the average annual green water resources show the spatial distribution characteristics of first increasing and then decreasing from upstream to downstream;(3) climate change is the dominant factor in the temporal and spatial changes of blue and green water resources in the Yalu River Basin(China side), and its contribution rates to the changes of blue and green water resources are 83.57% and 195.51% respectively. The results can provide a basis for the rational allocation of cross-border water resources and international cooperation in the Yalu River basin.

关 键 词：鸭绿江流域(中国侧) 蓝、绿水资源 SWAT模型 归因分析 国际界河 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]