事故致因“轨迹双耦合”模型构建及实证研究  

Model Construction and Empirical Research of"Double Track Coupling"for Accident Cause

作　　者：梁清 LIANG Qing(China Railway Baoji Bridge Group Co.,ltd.,Baoji Shanxi 721006,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁宝桥集团有限公司,陕西宝鸡721006

出　　处：《安全》2022年第11期39-45,共7页Safety & Security

摘　　要：为丰富事故致因链,明确致因链中各致因因素间耦合关系及险兆事件在事故致因链中的作用,采用文献分析、问卷调查、模型构建、案例实证等方法,梳理传统类与现代类事故致因理论的发展;并基于轨迹交叉理论,延伸风险与行为2条事故致因链,构建轨迹双耦合事故致因模型;以石景山隧道透水事故为例,验证模型的合理性。结果表明:通过风险链与行为链的双耦合,进一步明确事故风险与行为的关系,通过阻断风险链与行为链耦合,能有效预防事故的发生。In order to enrich the accident cause chain,and clarify the coupling relationship between the cause factors and the role of near-mis incident in the cause chain,methods such as literature analysis,questionnaire survey,model construction,and empirical case were used to review the development of traditional and modern types of accident cause theories.Based on the track intersection theory,the two accident cause chains of risk and behaviour were extended,and the double track coupling accident cause model was constructed.A tunnel water penetration accident in Shijingshan was took as an example to verify the rationality of the model.The results show that through the double coupling of the risk chain and behaviour chain,the relationship between accident risk and behaviour is further clarified,and by blocking the coupling of the risk chain and behaviour chain,accidents can be effectively prevented.

关 键 词：事故致因理论 风险链 行为链 耦合 险兆事件 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]