1961—2018年横断山区寒潮时空变化及其影响因素  

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Cold Wave and its Influencing Factors in Hengduan Mountain Area from 1961 to 2018

作　　者：任钇潼 程清平 金韩宇 REN Yitong;CHENG Qingping;JIN Hanyu(College of Geography and Ecotourism,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,China;Southwest Ecological Civilization Research Center,Kunming 650224,China;Yulong Snow Mountain cryosphere and sustainable development national(Yunnan)scientific field observation and research station,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,CAS,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]西南林业大学地理与生态旅游学院,昆明650224 [2]西南生态文明研究中心,昆明650224 [3]中国科学院西北生态环境与资源研究院玉龙雪山冰冻圈与可持续发展国家(云南省)科学野外观测研究站,兰州730000

出　　处：《西南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第11期72-79,共8页Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：云南省应用基础研究计划青年项目(202201AU070064);中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项(XDA19040504);西南林业大学高层次人才启动项目(112105).

摘　　要：基于1961—2019年横断山区66个气象站点逐日气温数据,采用Sen斜率与修订的Mann-Kendall检验,以及Pettitt突变检验方法研究寒潮时空变化特征,运用小波变换相干揭示寒潮与大尺度环流指数的相关性.结果表明:①时间上,研究区寒潮显著减少(冬季最为显著),于1983年显著突变,但持续日上仍以1~5 d寒潮为主.②空间上,受纬度与海拔的影响,横断山区寒潮频次分布特征为北多南少,以德格、稻城、美姑、香格里拉及弥渡站寒潮频次显著减少,其余站点未有明显变化.③寒潮初日、终日趋于提早.初日以弥渡、宁蒗、香格里拉站最为显著,终日以昭觉、色达、香格里拉、稻城、喜德、弥渡、美姑站最为显著.④东大西洋-西俄罗斯遥相关指数(EA/WR)、多变量ENSO指数(MEI)、太平洋-北美遥相关型指数(PNA)、西藏高原-1指数(TPR1)、西藏高原-2指数(TPR2)、西太平洋副热带高压强度指数(WPSHLI)与寒潮的相关性最强,且厄尔尼诺下寒潮比重趋于增加.Based on the daily temperature data of 66 meteorological stations in Hengduan Mountain Area from 1961 to 2019,Sen slope combined with the modified Mann-Kendall and Pettitt mutation test was used to study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of cold wave,and Wavelet Transform Coherence is used to reveal the correlation between cold wave and large scale circulation indexes.The results show that:①in terms of time,the cold wave in the whole region tends to decrease significantly(the most significant in winter)and mutated significantly in 1983,and it is still dominated by 1-5 days cold waves.②Spatially,due to the influence of latitude and altitude,the frequency of cold waves in Hengduan mountain area is higher in the north and lower in the south.The frequency of cold waves in Dege,Daocheng,Meigu,Shangri La and Midu stations is significantly reduced,and there was no significant change in other stations.③The first day and the last day of the cold waves tend to be earlier:Midu,Ninglang and Shangri La stations for the first day of cold waves are the most significant;and Zhaojue,Seda,Shangri La,Daocheng,Xide,Midu and Meigu stations for the last day of cold waves are the most significant.④EA/WR,MEI,PNA,TPR1,TPR2 and WPSHLI have the strongest correlation with the cold wave,and the proportion of cold wave tends to increase under El Nino.

关 键 词：横断山区 寒潮 时空变化 大尺度环流指数 

分 类 号：K903[历史地理—人文地理学]