一种对数型区域暴雨过程综合强度评估模型的应用研究  

Application Research on a Logarithmic Comprehensive Intensity Assessment Model of Regional Rainstorm Process

作　　者：张驰[1] 白莹莹[1] 崔童[2] 郭渠[1] 唐红玉[1] 杨宝钢[1] ZHANG Chi;BAI Yingying;CUI Tong;GUO Qu;TANG Hongyu;YANG Baogang(Chongqing Climate Center,Chongqing 401147,China;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市气候中心,重庆401147 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《西南师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第11期86-96,共11页Journal of Southwest China Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：重庆市科委社会与民生创新专项(cstc2017shmsA20012);重庆市气象局技术攻关项目(ZHCXTD-201909,YWJSGG-202125)共同资助.

摘　　要：利用重庆2016-2020年2092站的1 h,3 h,6 h,12 h和24 h五类滑动小时累积降水数据,分别以45 mm,95 mm,145 mm,195 mm和245 mm为极端阈值,运用对数型区域暴雨综合强度评估模型,对50场典型暴雨过程进行评估,并设定站数分类条件,将所有区域暴雨过程以综合强度0.9等量划为极端密集类(EC)和正常疏散类(ND),前者根据单站过程空间分布分为全域型(REC)、西部型(WEC)、东部型(EEC)、中西部型(MWEC)和中东部型(MEEC).研究发现:①极端密集类各型的平均区域综合强度由强至弱依次为WEC,MEEC,REC,MWEC,EEC,该类区域综合强度与单站数、强区间站数均呈显著性正相关.②单站点分布较广的REC和MWEC/MEEC下对应“东少西多”和“中间偏少”态的致灾力为最强,相比而言,WEC/EEC体现为分片区聚集成灾,虽影响范围较小但短时极端强降水在重庆西部地区的致灾概率较东部更大、破坏力也更强.③5年间所有区域暴雨过程中,区域综合强度与极端3 h幂平均小时雨强和极端均值都呈显著性正相关,且系数都在0.77及以上,强区间对数强度与区域综合强度也呈显著正相关,且站点位置与过程中大暴雨及以上量级的落区良好匹配.By using 5 types of running hourly accumulated precipitation data from 2092 meteorological stations in Chongqing from 2016 to 2020 and setting 45mm,95mm,145mm,195mm and 245mm as 1h,3h,6h,12h and 24h running cumulative precipitation extreme thresholds respectively to calculate 50 comprehensive intensity of regional rainstorm process with the logarithmic assessment model,then according to the stations'number classification conditions,all regional rainstorm processes were distinguished as Extreme Concentration(EC)and Normal Dispersion(ND)categories with a comprehensive intensity of 0.9.The EC category further was divided into Regional EC(REC),Western EC(WEC),Eastern EC(EEC),Midwest EC(MWEC)and Mideast EC(MEEC)types.Finally it was found that,①The order of the averaged regional comprehensive intensity from strong to weak above five EC types was:WEC,MEEC,REC,MWEC,EEC.The regional comprehensive intensity had a significant positive correlation with the number of stations and the one in the larger numerical interval[2,2.8]for all the EC types.②The areas covered by REC and MWEC/MEEC were wider,and their disaster-causing forces corresponding to the patterns of“less in the east and more in the west”and“less in the middle”were both the strongest.Although WEC/EEC mostly patched a cluster of disasters,and their scope of influence were smaller,the short-term extreme heavy precipitation was also likely to cause more disasters and be more destructive in the western part of Chongqing than in the eastern part.③For all the regional rainstorm processes,the regional comprehensive intensity had a significant positive correlation with the extreme 3-hour Power Mean hourly rainfall intensity and the extreme mean value,and the coefficients were all 0.77 and above.The logarithmic intensity of the stations in the larger numerical interval[2,2.8]was also significantly positively correlated with the regional comprehensive intensity,and the positions of those stations were well matched with the area of the very heavy rainstorm and

关 键 词：区域暴雨过程 综合强度 强区间 评估模型 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]