基于相对风险模型的崇明岛区域生态风险评价  

Ecological risk assessment of Chongming Eco-Island based on relative risk model

作　　者：谭娟[1] 王敏[1] 苏敬华[1] 阮俊杰[1] 王卿[1] TAN Juan;WANG Min;SU Jinghua;RUAN Junjie;WANG Qin(Shanghai Academy of Environmental Sciences,Shanghai 200233,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市环境科学研究院,上海200233

出　　处：《人民长江》2022年第11期27-34,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：上海市科技支撑计划项目(20DZ1204301,19DZ1203404,19DZ1203302);上海市生态环境局科研项目(沪环科[2021]第11号,沪环科[2020]第8号)。

摘　　要：区域生态风险评价强调风险源及最终风险水平的空间异质性,相对风险模型(Relative Risk Model,RRM)基于“风险源-暴露-受体-响应”机制,能够将多风险源、多受体、多暴露响应路径及多评价终点有机结合,综合量化识别区域生态风险及其空间差异,为风险管理提供依据。以崇明生态岛为研究对象,运用相对风险模型开展生态岛建设过程中关键节点年(2010,2012,2015年和2018年)的区域生态风险评价研究。结果表明:①长兴镇为高风险区,综合风险均值达17.0;其次为陈家镇和城桥镇,为中风险区,风险均值分别为7.81和6.77;东平镇和新海镇为低风险区,风险均值分别为2.86和1.51;其他乡镇均处于较低风险水平。②城桥镇和新海镇城镇化风险>农业生产风险>环境压力风险,长兴镇城镇化风险>环境压力风险>农业生产风险,其他乡镇均呈现农业生产风险>城镇化风险>环境压力风险。③从风险变化情况来看,2010~2018年间,各乡镇综合风险均呈降低趋势,但不同乡镇在不同节点年之间存在小幅波动。研究结果可为崇明生态岛未来发展决策提供参考。Regional ecological risk assessment emphasizes the spatial heterogeneity of risk source and final risk level.Based on the mechanism of risk source-expose-receptor-response,the relative risk model(RRM)can combine multiple sources,multiple receptors,multiple exposure response paths and multiple evaluation endpoints organically,and comprehensively identify regional ecological risks and spatial differences,which provide a basis for risk management.Taking Chongming Eco-Island as the research area,the RRM was applied to identify regional ecological risk characteristics in key node years(2010,2012,2015 and 2018)during the construction of ecological islands.Results show that Changxing Town was a high risk area with a mean risk value of 17.0,followed by Chenjia Town and Chengqiao Town with mean risk values of 7.81 and 6.77 relatively,which were moderate risk areas.Dongping Town and Xinhai Town were low risk areas with mean risk values of 2.86 and 1.51 relatively,while,other towns were at a lower risk level.Chengqiao Town and Xinhai Town had higher urbanization risk,followed by agricultural production risk and environmental pressure risk.In Changxing Town,environmental pressure risk was less than urbanization risk and higher than agricultural production risk.While,urbanization risks were less than agricultural production and higher than environmental pressure risk in other towns.The integrated risk value of each town showed a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2018,but there was a slight fluctuation between different node years for different town.The results can provide a reference for future development decision making of Chongming Eco-Island.

关 键 词：生态风险评价 暴露-响应模型 相对风险模型 崇明生态岛 

分 类 号：X592[环境科学与工程—环境工程]