基于CMIP6模式的乌江流域气温与降水时空变化  

Spatio-temporal changes of temperature and precipitation in Wujiang River Basin based on CMIP6 modes

作　　者：陈梓延 姜彤 王艳君[1,2] 姜汕 周建[1,2] 苏布达 CHEN Ziyan;JIANG Tong;WANG Yanjun;JIANG Shan;ZHOU Jian;SU Buda(School of Geographical Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Institute for Disaster Risk Management,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学灾害风险管理研究院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《人民长江》2022年第11期53-60,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：教育事业发展(地方教育附加)-2021年双一流-人才启动费项目(1521582101003);江苏省双创计划-人才专项(2281582100601)。

摘　　要：为了探究乌江流域未来气温与降水的时空变化特征,基于1961~2014年中国区域逐日气象格点数据,对国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)中SSPs情景(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP4-3.4,SSP2-4.5,SSP4-6.0,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)齐全的全球气候模式(GCM)进行了降尺度与偏差订正,在评估气候模式对乌江流域气温、降水模拟能力的基础上,预估分析了近期(2021~2040年)、中期(2041~2060年)、末期(2081~2100年)流域气温与降水的变化特征。结果表明:①2021~2100年乌江流域的年平均气温、季节气温均呈上升趋势。相对于基准期(1995~2014),各情景下近期年平均气温增幅均在1℃左右,在中期、末期,年平均气温增幅最小为1.4℃和1.3℃(SSP1-1.9),最大为2.3℃和4.6℃(SSP5-8.5);夏季与秋季气温增幅多为同时期四季气温增幅中最小和最大;空间上,年、季平均气温增幅总体上呈现出由流域上游向下游逐渐增大的分布特征。②2021~2100年乌江流域的年、季降水总体呈上升趋势。相对于基准期,各情景下年降水变化率均在近期最小,末期最大;季节尺度,夏、秋季降水变化率最小,冬季降水变化率最大;空间上,春、冬两季降水变化率总体上从流域上游至下逐渐增大,秋季降水变化率分布特征与春、冬两季相反;年降水和夏季降水多呈现出中游变化率最大的特点。研究成果可为流域应对气候变化提供科学依据,有助于水资源管理和社会经济发展规划。In order to explore the spatio-temporal changes of temperature and precipitation in the Wujiang River Basin in the future,based on the daily meteorological grid data in China from 1961 to 2014,outputs of Global Climate Models(GCM)with complete SSPs scenarios(SSP1-1.9,SSP1-2.6,SSP4-3.4,SSP2-4.5,SSP4-6.0,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5)from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 were downscaled and bias corrected.On the basis of evaluating the simulation ability of regional temperature and precipitation by GCMs,the changes of the temperature and precipitation in the Wujiang River Basin in the near-(2021-2040),mid-(2041-2060)and long-(2081-2100)term of the 21st century were projected.The results show that for temperature,overall the annual mean temperature and seasonal mean temperature in the Wujiang River Basin are projected to show upward trends for 2021-2100.Relative to the baseline period(1995-2014),the annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1℃in the near-term under all scenarios,whereas,it reaches the lowest by 1.4℃and 1.3℃in the mid-and long-term period under SSP1-1.9,reaches the highest by 2.3℃and 4.6℃in the mid-and long-term period under SSP5-8.5.Seasonally,the increase of temperature in the summer season is expected to be the lowest,while it is the largest in autumn.In the spatial aspect,both annual and seasonal mean temperatures are inclined to increase gradually from the upstream to the downstream of the basin.For precipitation,overall the annual and seasonal precipitation in the Wujiang River Basin are also anticipated to show upward trends for 2021-2100.Relative to the baseline period(1995-2014),percentage change of annual precipitation is prospective to be the lowest in the near-term and the largest in the long-term period for all the scenarios.On the seasonal scale,percentage change of precipitation in the summer and autumn seasons are the smallest,while it is the largest in winter.Spatially,percentage change of precipitation in spring and winter are intended to increase gradually

关 键 词：气温 降水 SSPs 时空变化 CMIP6模式 乌江流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]