基于系统动力学的宏观调控政策影响研究--以沈阳市为例  

Research on the Impact of Macroeconomic Control Policies Based on System Dynamics:Taking Shenyang as an Example

作　　者：刘宁[1] 张嘉琳 刘亚臣[1] LIU Ning;ZHANG Jialin;LIU Yachen(School of Management,Shenyang Jianzhu University,Shenyang 110168,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳建筑大学管理学院,辽宁沈阳110168

出　　处：《沈阳建筑大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第5期478-483,共6页Journal of Shenyang Jianzhu University:Social Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2020YFC0833205-03)。

摘　　要：针对宏观调控政策的实施途径,依据系统动力学原理,将沈阳市商品房价格影响系统分为土地、利率、人口和城市GDP 4个子系统,绘制了因果回路图与存量流量图,建立了沈阳市商品房价格系统动态分析模型,并通过调整货币政策、税收政策与土地政策的相关指标,对商品房价格进行单一政策与综合政策仿真调控实验。结果表明:综合政策较单一政策的调控效果更加明显,相比贷款利率与开发税率调控指标,土地价格对商品房价格的影响最为显著。Aiming at the implementation of macro-control policies,and based on the principle of system dynamics,the impact system of commercial housing price in Shenyang is divided into four subsystems:land,interest rate,population,and urban GDP.The causal loop diagram and the stock flow diagram are drawn,and the system dynamic analysis model of commercial housing price in Shenyang is established.By adjusting the relevant indicators of monetary policy,tax policy and land policy,this paper carries out single policy and comprehensive policy simulation control experiments on commercial housing prices.The results show that the comprehensive policy has more obvious control effects than the single policy.Compared with the control indicators of loan interest rate and development tax rate,land price has the most significant impact on the price of commercial housing.

关 键 词：商品房价格 调控政策 仿真分析 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]