科技大国能源消费碳排放与经济增长脱钩关系及驱动因素研究  

Research on the Decoupling Relationship and Driving Factors between Energy Consumption Carbon Emission and Economic Growth in Scientific and Technological Power

作　　者：韩文艳 熊永兰[1] HAN Wenyan;XIONG Yonglan(Chengdu Library and Information Center,Chinese Academy of Science,Chengdu Sichuan 610299,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院成都文献情报中心,四川成都610299

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第12期13-22,共10页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“地球科学发展态势评估研究”(L2124022)。

摘　　要：运用脱钩模型与LMDI模型,探讨了1990—2020年8个典型科技大国能源消费碳排放与经济增长的脱钩态势以及碳排放驱动因素。研究表明,美国和中国碳排放与经济规模皆处于科技大国前列,中国经济规模与碳排放皆呈上升态势但人均GDP、人均碳排放远低于其余国家。英国、德国、法国基本演变为强脱钩状态,法国、日本由增长负连接过渡到强脱钩状态,美国、俄罗斯处于由弱脱钩向强脱钩过渡阶段,中国、韩国总体处于弱脱钩状态,中国经济增长对能源消费的依存度较高,要实现强脱钩与其余科技大国之间还存在较大差距。科技大国基本上表现为人口规模、经济增长会促进碳排放,能源消费强度、碳排放系数会抑制碳排放,总体上经济增长对碳排放影响最大,而人口规模影响最小,能源消费强度的抑制作用最大,但各因子对各国的影响不尽相同。Based on the decoupling model and LMDI model,the article discusses the decoupling trend between carbon emissions of energy consumption and economic growth and the driving factors of carbon emissions in eight typical technological powers from 1990 to 2020.Research shows that carbon emissions and economies of the United States and China are at the forefront of technological power,China’s economic scale and carbon emissions are on the rise,but per capita GDP and per capita carbon emissions are far lower than other countries.The UK,Germany and France have basically evolved into strong decoupling.France and Japan have transitioned from negative growth connection to strong decoupling.The US and Russia have transitioned from weak decoupling to strong decoupling.China and South Korea are generally in a weak decoupling state.China’s economic growth has a high dependence on energy consumption,and there is still a big gap between the realization of strong decoupling and other technological powers.Scientific and technological power basically show that population size and economic growth will promote carbon emissions,energy consumption intensity and carbon emission coefficient will inhibit carbon emissions.Overall,economic growth has the greatest impact on carbon emissions,while population size has the smallest impact,and energy consumption intensity has the largest inhibitory effect,but each factor has different effects on countries.

关 键 词：碳排放 经济增长 能源转型 Tapio脱钩 科技大国 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]