黄河流域城市综合承载力时空演进及影响因素研究  

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity and Its Influencing Factors in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：李豫新[1] 曹梦渊 LI Yuxin;CAO Mengyuan(School of Economics and Management,Shihezi University,Shihezi Xinjiang 832003,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院,新疆石河子832003

出　　处：《生态经济》2022年第12期72-81,88,共11页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“多维视角下的新疆经济发展与国家治理研究”(20AJL014)。

摘　　要：以2009—2018年黄河流域62个地级市为研究对象,基于DPSIR分析框架构建城市综合承载力评价体系,运用改进熵值法、ESDA分析方法和GIS分析技术剖析了黄河流域城市综合承载力的时空演进特征,进而采用空间杜宾模型分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)黄河流域城市综合承载力水平呈持续上升态势,空间上由低水平的均衡向高水平的不均衡演进,基本呈现“东高西低”“省会高、周边低”的分布格局。(2)空间相关性分析发现,黄河流域城市综合承载力呈现显著的空间正相关性,以“高—高”和“低—低”为主,呈聚类分布。(3)产业高级化、金融发展水平和人口规模对城市综合承载力的提升具有促进作用,资源消耗具有抑制作用;空间溢出方面,产业高级化、政府治理能力和人口规模具有正向空间溢出效应,资源消耗会通过溢出效应抑制邻近城市综合承载力的提升。Taking 62 prefecture level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2018 as the research object,an urban comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation system is constructed based on the DPSIR analysis framework.The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of urban comprehensive carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin are analyzed by using the improved entropy method,ESDA analysis method and GIS analysis technology,and then the influencing factors are analyzed by using the spatial Dubin model.The results show that:(1) The level of urban comprehensive carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin continues to rise,evolving from low-level equilibrium to high-level imbalance in space,basically showing the distribution pattern of “high in the East and low in the west”,“high in the provincial capital and low in the surrounding areas”.(2) Through the spatial correlation analysis,it is found that the comprehensive carrying capacity of cities in the Yellow River Basin has a significant positive spatial correlation,with the “high-high” and “low-low” clustering distribution.(3) Industrial sophistication,financial development level and population size have positive effects on urban comprehensive carrying capacity,while resource consumption has negative effects on urban comprehensive carrying capacity.In terms of spatial spillover,industrial upgrading,government governance capacity and population size have positive spatial spillover effects,and resource consumption inhibits the improvement of comprehensive carrying capacity of neighboring cities through spillover effects.

关 键 词：综合承载力 时空演进 影响因素 空间溢出 黄河流域 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] F062.2