四川省粮食生产时空演变特征及其影响因素——基于90个粮食生产重点县视角  

Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of food production in Sichuan province and its influencing factors:From the perspective of 90 key food production counties

作　　者：吕火明[1] 赵颖文[2] 刘宗敏[2] 许钰莎 LYU Huo-ming;ZHAO Ying-wen;LIU Zong-min;XU Yu-sha(Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Chengdu 610000,China;Agricultural Information and Rural Economy Research Institute of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Chengdu 610066,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省农业科学院,成都610000 [2]四川省农业科学院农业信息与农村经济研究所,成都610066

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2022年第9期2220-2228,共9页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：2020年度中国工程科技发展战略四川研究院咨询研究项目(2020JDR0379);四川省科技计划项目(2021YFYZ0028-02);四川省软科学项目(2021JDR0372)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究粮食生产重点县生产时空格局演变特征及其影响因素,对全面认识粮食安全问题以及制定区域差异化的粮食政策具有重要的现实意义。【方法】以四川省90个粮食生产重点县为研究对象,借助地理重心模型、空间自相关分析、对数平均迪数分解等方法,对2005—2020年四川省粮食生产的时空演变特征及其影响因素进行分析。【结果】(1)从粮食综合产能来看:四川省90个粮食生产重点县产量总体呈现稳定增长趋势,年度增速为1.24%,但不同区域粮食产量波动存在差异;(2)从不同粮食品种来看:对于四川省90个粮食生产重点县而言,粮食增产贡献最大的是玉米,其后依次是稻谷、薯类和豆类,小麦对粮食的增产贡献率为负;(3)从空间集聚特征来看:四川省90个粮食重点县的粮食生产重心整体向东向南迁移,东部地区粮食产能总体高于南部地区;与此同时,随着时间的推移,粮食生产的全局空间集聚性逐渐增强,高值集聚区主要分布在川南经济区,低值集聚区主要分布在成都平原经济区和攀西经济区;(4)从粮食增产影响要素来看:粮食单产水平的提升对粮食增产贡献显著,播种面积对粮食增产在不同区域存在明显差异。【结论】应通过严守耕地红线、强化科技支撑、完善农业生产社会化服务体系和建立粮食生产重点县利益补偿机制等措施筑牢四川省粮食安全根基。【Objective】It is of great practical significance to study the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the temporal and spatial pattern of production in the major grain-producing counties for a comprehensive understanding of food security issues and the formulation of regional differentiated food polices.【Method】Taking the 90 major grain-producing counties in Sichuan province as the research object,with the help of geographic gravity center model,spatial autocorrelation analysis,logarithmic mean dyadic decomposition method,the present study analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and its influencing factors of grain production in Sichuan province from 2005 to 2020.【Result】(i)From the perspective of comprehensive grain production capacity,the output of 90 major grain-producing counties in Sichuan province showed a stable growth trend,with an annual growth rate of 1.24%,but the fluctuation of grain production in different regions was different;(ii)From the perspective of different grain varieties,the variety that contributed the most to the increase of grain production in the 90 major grain-producing counties was maize,then followed by rice,potato and bean,and the contribution rate of wheat to grain yield was negative;(iii)From the perspective of spatial agglomeration characteristics,the gravity center of grain production of the 90 major grain producing-counties in Sichuan province moved to east and south as a whole,and the grain production capacity in the eastern region was generally higher than that in the southern region;Meanwhile,as time went by,the overall spatial agglomeration of grain production was gradually enhanced,high value agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in southern Sichuan economic zone,while low value agglomeration areas were mainly distributed in Chengdu plain economic zone and Panxi economic zone;(iv)From the perspective of influencing factors of grain yield increased,the increase of grain yield per unit area contributed significantly to grain yie

关 键 词：粮食生产 时空演变 集聚测度 影响因素 四川省 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]