长三角地区万亿GDP城市经济增长预测研究  

Economic Growth Outlook of Trillion-Yuan GDP Cities in the Yangtze River Delta Region

作　　者：刘林 LIU Lin(School of Economics and Management,Nantong University,Nantong 226019,China)

机构地区：[1]南通大学经济与管理学院,江苏南通226019

出　　处：《南通大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第6期48-59,共12页Journal of Nantong University:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“区域协调战略下长三角城市群公共体育资源优化配置机制与路径研究”(20BTY07);南通市社会科学基金项目“南通国内生产总值迈向2万亿的增速与时间研究”(2021BNT004);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究一般项目“高水平对外开放下国际经济不确定性的外溢路径与财政货币政策动态协调的管理机制研究”(2022SJYB1721)。

摘　　要：长三角地区万亿GDP城市是地区经济发展的核心和重要承载。基于经济增长理论,在生产要素和通胀变动路径的假设下,估计建立长三角地区八个万亿GDP城市的经济增长模型,利用1996-2020年经济数据,预测各市截至2035年的经济总量规模和增长趋势。研究结果显示:(1)构建的经济增长模型具有较高的拟合能力,按照当前经济增长路径,各市实现既定经济目标的快慢主要依赖于劳动力供给稳定下的资本积累速度;(2)如果各市固定资本积累增速能够保持年均3%-5%,八市经济总量之和将可能在2035年达到30万亿元,其中,上海经济总量可能在2024年前后突破5万亿元,苏州GDP在2030年可能达到3万亿元,南京和杭州有望在“十四五”期间经济总量突破2万亿元,南通、无锡、宁波、合肥可能会在2030—2035年间实现2万亿元的总量目标。为尽早实现既定的经济增长目标,长三角区域各城市应加快协同联动发展,扩大地区有效投资规模,稳定劳动力供给,加强创新驱动。Trillion-yuan GDP cities in the Yangtze River Delta region are the core and important bearers of regional economic development. Based on the economic growth theory and using economic data from 1996 to 2020, this paper estimates and establishes economic growth models for eight trillion-yuan GDP cities in the region, and forecasts the total economic scale and growth trend of each city by 2035 under the assumption of change paths of production factors and inflationary. Results show that,(1) the economic growth models have good performance of model fitness, and the speed of each city to achieve the set economic goals largely depends on the rate of capital accumulation and steady labor supply;and that,(2) whe3n each city maintains an average annual growth rate of 3%-5% of fixed capital accumulation, the total economic output of the eight cities may double in 2035. Out of this, Shanghai’s and Suzhou’s GDP may exceed 5 trillion yuan around 2024 and 3 trillion yuan by 2030, respectively, and Nanjing and Hangzhou are expected to double their outputs during the 14th Five-Year period, while Nantong, Wuxi, Ningbo and Hefei may achieve the target of 2 trillion GDP between2030 to 2035. Cities in the region should boost their economic growth by accelerating the synergistic and linked development, expanding the scale of effective investment, stabilizing the labor supply, and strengthening the innovation driven mode for the early realization of economic growth target.

关 键 词：长三角地区 万亿GDP城市 经济增长 经济预测 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济] F121.3