基于微分方程模型的中国天然气消费量预测  

Prediction of Natural Gas Consumption in China Based on Differential Equation Model

作　　者：沈威 辛俊萱 杜荣杰 乔亮 SHEN Wei;XIN Junxuan;DU Rongjie;QIAO Liang

机构地区：[1]深圳市燃气集团股份有限公司,广东深圳518049

出　　处：《煤气与热力》2022年第10期35-38,42,共5页Gas & Heat

摘　　要：根据2000—2019年天然气消费量数据,建立预测天然气消费量的简单指数函数模型、指数函数模型、改进的指数函数模型、logistic函数模型。采用各模型对2020—2021年天然气消费量进行预测,将预测结果与实际数据比较,得出相对误差。相比简单指数函数模型、指数函数模型、改进的指数函数模型,logistic函数模型预测更准确。采用logistic函数模型预测得知,中国天然气消费量在2030年前依然有较为可观的增长,在2030年达到5 562×10~8 m~3后小幅增长,2040年后基本保持稳定,最终的天然气消费量会稳定在6 800×10~8 m~3左右。According to the natural gas consumption data from 2000 to 2019,the simple exponential function model,exponential function model,improved exponential function model and logistic function model for predicting natural gas consumption are established. Various models are used to predict the natural gas consumption from 2020 to 2021,and the predicted results are compared with the actual data to obtain the relative error. Compared with the simple exponential function model,exponential function model and improved exponential function model,the logistic function model prediction is more accurate. It is predicted by using the logistic function model that China’ s natural gas consumption will still have a considerable growth before 2030,and will increase slightly after reaching 5 562 ×10~8m~3 in 2030. After 2040,it will basically remain stable,and the final natural gas consumption will be stable at around 6 800 × 10~8m~3.

关 键 词：天然气消费量 预测 指数函数模型 logistic函数模型 

分 类 号：TU996.3[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]