猪肉价格与水产品价格关联性研究——基于江苏省凌家塘农副产品批发市场数据的分析  

Research on the Correlation between Pork Prices and Aquatic Product Prices——Based on the analysis of data from the wholesale market of agricultural and sideline products in Lingjiatang,Jiangsu Province

作　　者：王学成 王俊琪 

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2022年第5期126-129,206,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：北京市城市治理研究基地和北方工业大学创新创业计划项目资助。

摘　　要：肉类食品消费价格和结构是影响城乡生活质量的重要因素。研究畜类与水产类价格之间的关系,有助于稳定肉类产品价格,推动食品市场健康发展。本文基于江苏凌家塘市场白条猪与鲈鱼的交易价格信息,分别使用长期和短期数据建立VAR模型,讨论二者价格波动的关联关系。从长期来看,鲈鱼价格是猪肉价格的格兰杰原因,作为一般肉类食品消费代表的猪肉明显受到作为中高端消费的鲈鱼影响,且脉冲响应较为温和而持续,但影响程度较低,两者间替代关系也比较弱;从短期来看,2019年以来在猪周期、非洲猪瘟以及新冠疫情等因素综合影响下,猪肉价格呈现大幅波动态势,鲈鱼价格显著受到猪肉价格影响,脉冲响应也更加剧烈而短促,影响程度增强,呈现出明显的替代品效应。基于此,应进一步加强价格监测与分析,优化肉类食品消费结构,积极有序扩大水产品供给,将其作为平抑猪肉价格波动的重要手段。The consumption price and structure of meat food are important factors affecting the quality of life in urban and rural areas.Studying the relationship between the prices of livestock and aquatic products will help stabilize the price of meat products and promote the healthy development of the food market.Based on the transaction price information of pork and perch in Lingjiatang market,Jiangsu Province,this paper uses long-term and short-term data to establish a VAR model to discuss the relationship between the price fluctuations of the two.In the long run,the perch price is the Granger reason for the pork price.Pork,which is a representative of general meat food consumption,is obviously affected by perch,which is a medium and high-end consumption.The impulse response is relatively mild and continuous,but the degree of impact is low.The substitution relationship between them is also relatively weak;In the short term,since 2019,under the combined influence of the hog cycle,African swine fever,and the COVID-19 epidemic,the pork price has fluctuated greatly.The sea bass price has been significantly affected by it,and the impulse response has become more intense,and the degree of influence has increased,showing a clear substitution effect.Based on this,price monitoring and analysis should be further strengthened,the consumption structure of meat food should be optimized,and the supply of aquatic products should be actively and orderly expanded as an important means to stabilize pork price fluctuations.

关 键 词：肉类食品消费 猪肉价格 鲈鱼价格 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F724.3