考虑投资不确定性和不完全信息博弈的源网荷规划方法  

A Source Network Load Planning Method Considering Investment Uncertainty and Incomplete Information Game

作　　者：朱纯 楼晓东 陈凯玲 董士波 邹红波[4] ZHU Chun;LOU Xiaodong;CHEN Kailing;DONG Shibo;ZOU Hongbo(State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company,Shanghai 200010,China;State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company Economic and Technological Research Institute,Shanghai 200233,China;China Electric Power Project Cost Administration,Beijing 100053,China;College of Electric and New Energy,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]国网上海市电力公司,上海200010 [2]国网上海经研院,上海200233 [3]电力工程造价与定额管理总站,北京100053 [4]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《电网与清洁能源》2022年第11期45-54,共10页Power System and Clean Energy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61876097)。

摘　　要：随着我国电力市场改革进程的不断推进,市场主体数量和投资不确定性不断增加,提升了电力系统规划的难度。提出一种市场环境下的多主体博弈规划方法。根据不同市场主体得利益需求,采用博弈论构建电力市场多主体博弈框架,并针对对电力市场的投资不确定性,采用实物期权理论进行评估,在此基础上构建多主体不完全信息规划模型,并采用协同进化算法进行求解。基于IEEE30节点的系统算例仿真结果表明,所提方法在提升电力系统经济运行水平同时,平衡了各主体的利益需求,提高了各主体考虑期权的综合长期投资收益。With the continuous advancement of the reform process of China’s power market,the number of market players and the uncertainty of investment are increasing,which has raised the difficulty of power system planning. This paper proposes a multi-agent game planning method in the market environment. According to the benefit demand of different market entities,the multi-agent game framework of the power market is constructed by using game theory. The investment uncertainty of the power market is evaluated by using real option theory. On this basis,the multi-agent incomplete information planning model is constructed and solved by using the coevolutionary algorithm. The simulation results show that the proposed method improves the economic operation level of the power system,balances the interest needs of all entities,and improves the comprehensive long-term investment income of all entities considering options.

关 键 词：电力市场 实物期权 不完全信息博弈 电力系统规划 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]