中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易规模影响因素分析  

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Trade Scale of China’s Import of Russian Woody Forest Products

作　　者：田刚[1] 高宇 单立岩[1] TIAN Gang;GAO Yu;SHAN Liyan(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《林业经济》2022年第8期85-96,共12页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中蒙俄经济走廊林草资源可持续合作开发机制与实现路径研究”(编号:21BGJ066)。

摘　　要：俄罗斯拥有丰富的森林资源,与中国有着国际贸易的地缘优势,且始终是中国重要的木材原料进口来源国。但受诸多因素的影响,中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易规模始终处于不稳定状态。因此,为更好地解决中国木材的供需问题,文章运用灰色关联度分析法,充分考虑政治、经济、自然环境等影响因素,选取俄罗斯1992-2021年的数据,对中国进口俄罗斯主要木质林产品贸易规模的影响因素进行分析与测算,研究结果对更好地开展中俄林业经贸合作、保持中国对外贸易良好的增长态势有一定参考价值。研究表明:(1)中俄两国经济发展水平综合关联度值分别为0.8682和0.8325,在各指标中位列第一和第二,GDP上升代表着国民生活水平、收入水平上升,国内对木质林产品的需求也呈上升趋势。(2)国际市场环境中的人口规模综合关联度值为0.8212,在各指标中位列第三,说明人口规模极大程度影响中国木质林产品进口贸易规模,人口规模越大,其市场需求越大。(3)中国国内木材供给量关联度值为0.8096,在各指标中位列第四,说明国内木材的供求矛盾始终是影响我国木质林产品进口贸易规模大小的关键因素。(4)俄罗斯森林认证面积的综合关联度值为0.7976,在各指标中位列第五,说明随着社会不断发展,消费者在购买木制品以提高生活幸福感的同时也开始注重环境保护,森林认证面积的多寡直接影响中俄两国可合作的贸易范围大小。因此,文章提出政策启示:鼓励中国企业到俄罗斯进行林业投资;国内要加速人工林的培育,拓宽木材进口渠道,保证进口市场多元化;与俄罗斯达成贸易合作协定,督促俄罗斯不断扩大国内森林认证的面积。Russia has rich forest resources and geographical advantages in international trade with China,and has always been an important source country of woody raw materials import in China.However,due to the influence of multiple factors,the trade scale of China’s import of Russian woody forest products is always in an unstable state.Therefore,in order to better solve the problem of China’s wood supply and demand,this paper used the grey correlation analysis method to fully consider the political,economic,natural environment and other influencing factors,and selected the sample data of Russian from 1992 to 2021 to analyze and calculate the influencing factors of the trade scale of China’s main woody forest products imported from Russia.The research results have certain reference value for better development of Sino-Russian forestry economic and trade cooperation and maintaining the good growth trend of China’s foreign trade.The results showed that:(1)The comprehensive correlation degree of economic development level of China and Russia is 0.8682 and 0.8325 respectively,ranking the first and the second.The rise of GDP represents the rise of national living standard and income level.Domestic demand for woody forest products is also set to rise.(2)The comprehensive correlation degree value of population size in the international market environment is 0.8212,ranking the third among all indicators,indicating that population size greatly affects the import trade scale of woody forest products in China.The larger the population size,the greater the market demand.(3)The correlation degree of China’s domestic woody supply is 0.8096,ranking the fourth,indicating that the contradiction between domestic supply and demand of wood is always the key factor affecting the scale of China’s import trade.(4)The comprehensive correlation value of Russia’s forest certification area is 0.7976,ranking the fifth.With the continuous development of society,consumers begin to pay attention to environmental protection while buying woo

关 键 词：进口 木质林产品 贸易规模 影响因素 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61F755.12