层次分析法在区域雷电灾害风险评估中的应用  

Application of analytic hierarchy process in regional lightning disaster risk assessment

作　　者：庞华基 孟繁辉 PANG Huaji;MENG Fanhui(Qingdao Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center,Qingdao 266003,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛市气象灾害防御技术中心,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2022年第4期117-123,共7页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021MD062);环渤海区域创新基金项目(QYXM201906)。

摘　　要：文中详细介绍了层次分析法的原理和计算方法,并举例说明该方法在区域雷电灾害风险评估中的应用。针对传统专家打分法的弊端,结合工作实际,建议采用背对背德尔菲法两轮打分和背对背与集体讨论相结合的两种群判断方法,这样能够减少专家对项目理解的偏差,有效提高评估的客观性,使最终评估结果趋于合理。同时建议建立群判断规则,避免出现分歧较大的打分结果。The principle and calculation method of analytic hierarchy process(AHP)are introduced in detail,and an example is given to illustrate the application of this method in regional lightning disaster risk assessment.With respect to the disadvantages of traditional expert scoring method and on the basis of actual work,it is suggested to adopt two group judgment methods of back-to-back Delphi method and the combination of back-to-back and group discussion,which can reduce the deviation of experts understanding of the project and effectively improve the objectivity of the evaluation,so the final evaluation results tend to be reasonable.Group judgment rules should be established to help avoid scoring results with large differences.

关 键 词：层次分析法 雷电风险评估 隶属度 群判断 

分 类 号：X913.1[环境科学与工程—安全科学]