“一带一路”倡议下对外直接投资效应分析  

Study on the Impact of OFDI on“the Belt and Road”Initiative

作　　者：丁杰[1] DING Jie(School of Finance,Fujian Jiangxia University,Fuzhou 350108,China)

机构地区：[1]福建江夏学院金融学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《西安财经大学学报》2022年第6期103-117,共15页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“监管科技在‘自贸区银行’风险控制中的运用研究”(20BJL125)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议提出以来,中国与“一带一路”双边国家在“互通”过程中,形成了产能与投资合作机制,带动经济发展与资源、人才的互联互通。文章基于全球176个经济体2009—2017年的样本数据,利用双重差分法,研究“一带一路”倡议对外直接投资的效应,并进行深入的异质性研究和机制探讨。实证结果表明,“一带一路”倡议的对外直接投资效应总体为正,且有增大趋势,但并不显著;区域异质性和特征异质性明显:对中南半岛、中巴经济走廊的投资促进作用显著且大于对中蒙俄、中西亚以及新亚欧经济走廊的政策效应,且对低人均GDP、高GDP增长率、高通胀率的新兴发展中国家的促进作用更大。深入的机制探索表明,基础设施机制和独特优势机制是“一带一路”倡议发挥政策效应的两大路径。因此,我国应根据不同经济走廊国别状况,着眼于异质性,从基础设施、市场互联、政策沟通等方面加强与沿线国家的合作。通过高层战略合作,抵御政治风险,形成独特的中国企业优势,加强资源与技术的流转,提升人才互动与产业链服务,形成良好的营商环境。Based on the sample data of 176 countries in 2009-2017,the double difference method is used to study the foreign direct investment effect of“the Belt and Road Initiative”and conduct in-depth heterogeneity research and mechanism discussion.The empirical results show that the foreign direct investment effect of“the Belt and Road Initiative”is generally positive and has a tendency to become larger with time,but it is not significant;regional heterogeneity and characteristic heterogeneity are obvious:The investment promotion role in the Indo-China Peninsula,China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is significantly greater than that of the China-Russia-Russia,Central and West Asia,and the New Asia-Europe Economic Corridor,and has a greater role in emerging developing countries of low-per capita GDP,high GDP growth rate,and high inflation.In-depth institutional exploration shows that infrastructure mechanisms and unique advantages mechanisms are the two major paths to exert policy effects.Therefore,China should strengthen cooperation with countries along the line in terms of infrastructure,market interconnection and policy communication according to the status of different economic corridors,and unblock the way for enterprises to respond to government initiatives and strengthen cooperation with countries along the line.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 对外直接投资 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]