基于超循环理论的土地利用结构预测模型与实证研究  

Prediction Model of Land Use Structure Based on the Hypercycle Theory and an Application

作　　者：王砾 李贵才[1,3] 晁恒[4] WANG Li;LI Guicai;CHAO Heng(School of Urban Planning and Design,Peking University,Shenzhen 518055,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;Laboratory for Urban Future,Peking University(Shenzhen),Shenzhen 518055,China;Shenzhen New Land Tool Planning&Architectural Design Co.Ltd,Shenzhen 518172,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市规划与设计学院,广东深圳518055 [2]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [3]北京大学(深圳)未来城市实验室,广东深圳518055 [4]深圳市新城市规划建筑设计股份有限公司,广东深圳518172

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2022年第10期72-80,共9页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071204);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2019A1515011661)。

摘　　要：研究目的:将超循环理论引入土地利用变化模型研究,构建一个新的用于土地利用结构预测的数值模型。研究方法:类比法,超循环模型,马尔科夫模型,数值拟合。研究结果:(1)土地利用系统是典型的达尔文系统,符合超循环模型描述的演化机制;(2)马尔科夫模型是超循环模型的特例,其土地利用类型转移概率矩阵方法可计算部分超循环模型参数;(3)深圳市的实证表明,在大部分土地利用类型预测中超循环模型比马尔科夫模型更加贴近现实,参数ϕ值的可变性使得超循环模型更能表示外生因素的影响。研究结论:超循环模型是一个具有可行性和较强灵活性的土地利用变化模型,在未来具有一定应用前景。The purposes of this study are to introduce the hypercycle theory into the study of land use change model and to construct a new model for land use structure prediction.The research methods include analogy approach,hypercycle model,Markov model and numerical fitting.The research results show that:1)land use system is a typical Darwin system.It conforms to the evolution mechanism which is described by the hypercycle model.2)Markov model is a special case of the hypercycle model.The method of land use type transfer probability matrix can calculate the parameters of the hypercycle model.3)The empirical evidence in Shenzhen City shows that in most land use type prediction,the hypercycle model is closer to reality than the Markov model,the variability of the parameterϕvalue makes the hyper-cycle model more indicative of the influence of exogenous factors.In conclusions,the hypercycle model is a feasible and flexible land use change model,which has a certain application prospect in the future.

关 键 词：交叉理论 土地利用结构 超循环理论 模型 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]