地方政府融资行为的新解释:基于土地价格和抵押贷款数据的实证  

New Interpretation of Local Government Financing:An Empirical Study Based on Land Price and Mortgage Data

作　　者：张晗 Zhang Han(School of Finance,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院,北京100872

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第21期136-140,共5页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：文章利用2006—2018年中国各地级市土地抵押贷款和土地价格数据,重新解释了中国地方政府融资行为的影响因素。从总体来看,土地价格与人均土地抵押贷款不存在显著的正相关性,这一结论在考虑用地类型之后发生改变。结果显示,住宅用地和商业用地的价格及其增长率对土地抵押贷款有显著的正向影响,而工业用地和其他用地则没有显著影响。异质性分析发现,住宅用地价格对于土地抵押贷款的影响主要表现在中小城市,而在大城市并不明显。大中型城市的商业用地价格及其增长率对人均土地抵押贷款具有显著影响,而小型城市的商业用地价格及其增长率对人均土地抵押贷款没有显著影响。This paper is based on the data of land mortgage loans and land prices of various prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2018 to reexplains the influencing factors of local government financing behavior in China.In general,there is no significant positive correlation between land price and per capita land mortgage loan,and this conclusion changes after considering the type of land use.The results show that the prices of residential land and commercial land and their growth rates have a significant positive impact on land mortgages,while industrial land and other land have no significant impact.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of residential land price on land mortgage is mainly manifested in small and medium-sized cities,but not obvious in large cities.The commercial land price and its growth rate in large and medium-sized cities have a significant impact on the per capita land mortgage loan,while the commercial land price and its growth rate in small cities have no significant impact on the per capita land mortgage.

关 键 词：土地抵押 土地价格 地方政府融资行为 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]