碳排放影子价格的贝叶斯估计  

Bayesian Estimation of Shadow Price of Carbon Emission

作　　者：刘悦 杨浩然[2] Liu Yue;Yang Haoran(School of Economics and Finance,Chongqing University of Technology,Chongqing 400054,China;School of Economics,Southwest University of Political Science&Law,Chongqing 401120,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆理工大学经济金融学院,重庆400054 [2]西南政法大学经济学院,重庆401120

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第21期168-173,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：重庆市教育委员会人文社会科学研究项目(21SKGH181);重庆市教育委员会科学技术研究计划项目(KJQN202000305);重庆市金融学会2022年两江金融基金项目(22LJND01);重庆理工大学“两金”培育项目(2021PYR08)。

摘　　要：文章采用贝叶斯MCMC方法测算了我国1997—2017年的省际碳排放影子价格。研究结果显示,我国的二氧化碳减排成本呈现上升趋势,按照可比价格计算的碳排放影子价格后验均值由1997年的40.00元/吨上升为2017年的46.59元/吨。但地区间碳排放影子价格的变化趋势差异显著,分别表现为递增型、“倒U”型和平台型走势。地区间的碳排放影子价格分化逐渐拉大,这构成了跨地区碳交易的现实基础。此外,通过与2014—2017年六个试点的碳交易价格进行对比发现,所估计的碳排放影子价格明显偏高,这表明碳排放交易市场的价格发现机制仍有待完善。This paper uses Bayesian MCMC method to estimate the provincial level of shadow price of carbon emission in China from 1997 to 2017.The research findings are shown as below:The cost of carbon emission reduction in China shows an upward trend,and the posterior mean of the shadow price of carbon emission calculated according to the comparable price has increased from 40.00 yuan/ton in 1997 to 46.59 yuan/ton in 2017.However,the variation trend of carbon emission shadow price is significantly different among regions,which presents increasing,inverted U-shaped and plateau trend,respectively.The divergence of carbon emission shadow price between regions is gradually widening,which constitutes the realistic basis of cross-regional carbon trading.In addition,by comparing with the carbon trading prices of six pilot projects from 2014 to 2017,it is found that the estimated shadow price of carbon emissions is significantly higher,which indicates that the price discovery mechanism of carbon emission trading market still needs to be improved.

关 键 词：碳排放影子价格 贝叶斯MCMC 面板数据模型 

分 类 号：O212.8[理学—概率论与数理统计] F205[理学—数学]