考虑风险关联的高速公路PPP项目风险分担博弈研究  

Research on Risk Sharing Game of Expressway PPP Project Considering Risk Correlation

作　　者：晏家元 贾伟强[1] YAN Jia-yuan;JIA Wei-qiang(Nanchang Hangkong University,School of Economics and Management,Nanchang 330063,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌航空大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330063

出　　处：《云南水力发电》2022年第11期350-357,共8页Yunnan Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71861028);南昌航空大学研究生创新专项资金项目(YC2021-096)。

摘　　要：为解决博弈论用于高速公路PPP项目风险分担时忽略风险关联这一缺陷,提出一种考虑风险间关联关系的风险分担比例确定方法,为合理的风险分担机制制定提供理论依据。将风险关联关系刻画为预期应担风险损失值并与高速公路PPP项目讨价还价动态博弈理论相结合,得到最优风险分担比例。结果表明:考虑风险关联的讨价还价博弈模型为高速公路PPP项目风险分担提供了一种新的方法,此外风险间的关联关系、双方地位不对称均会影响双方的风险承担比例,为减少不合理的风险分担,在PPP项目建设初期应注重风险关联关系的识别,并提升公共部门与私人部门的信息透明度。I In order to solve the defect of ignoring risk correlation when applying game theory to risk sharing of PPP project on expressway,this paper proposes a method to determine the risk sharing proportion considering the relationship between risks.It provides theoretical basis for establishing reasonable risk sharing mechanism.The optimal risk-sharing proportion can be obtained by portraying the risk-related relationship as expected risk-bearing loss value and combining it with dynamic game theory of bargaining for PPP project of expressway.The result shows that the bargaining game model considering risk correlation provides a new method for risk sharing of PPP project on expressway.In addition,the relationship between risks and asymmetric status of both parties will affect the risk-taking ratio of both parties.In order to reduce unreasonable risk sharing,attention should be paid to the identification of risk correlation at the beginning of PPP project construction and to improve the information transparency between public and private sectors.

关 键 词：高速公路 PPP模式 风险分担 讨价还价博弈 

分 类 号：F542[经济管理—产业经济]