货运方式“公转铁”的惯性效应研究  

Inertial Effect Analysis on Freight Mode Shifting from Roads to Railways

作　　者：简文良 代严红 诸立超 JIAN Wenliang;DAI Yanhong;ZHU Lichao(School of Transportation,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,Fujian,China;School of Business Administration,Zhejiang University of Finance&Economics,Hangzhou 310018,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]福建工程学院交通运输学院,福建福州350118 [2]浙江财经大学工商管理学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2022年第10期64-69,共6页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金项目(2021J05226,2022J01938);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ21E080023);浙江省哲学与社会科学规划项目(21NDQN256YB);福建工程学院科研启动基金(GY-Z20013)。

摘　　要：为准确掌握托运人货运方式选择行为特征,针对性出台“公转铁”引导政策,以沪宁铁路沿线城市的“白货”运输为例,通过开展托运人选择行为及意向偏好数据调查,构建考虑选择惯性变量的货运方式选择行为模型,采用RP与SP融合技术解析货运方式选择行为的惯性效应及其影响机理。在此基础上,应用弹性分析确定提升铁路分担率的关键因素。结果表明:公路托运人货运方式选择时,表现出对公路运输较强的依赖性,其原因在于受惯性影响,公路托运人易低估公路费用,而高估铁路“门到门”运输时间;优化运输组织以缩短铁路“门到门”运输时间、降低铁路全程运输费用的同时,加大营销宣传力度、提升信息透明度、保持运价稳定以削弱惯性效应,有助于促进货运方式“公转铁”。In order to accurately understand shippers’preference in choosing freight mode,targeted policies can be made for guiding the freight mode shifting from roads to railways.This paper focused on the transportation of goods excluding coal and coke in cities along the Shanghai-Nanjing Railway and built a preference model for choosing freight mode that considers inertial variables by analyzing shippers’preference and intention data.The RP and SP technologies were used to analyze the inertial effect of shippers’preference in choosing freight mode and the corresponding influence mechanism.After that,elastic analysis was applied to identify key factors that could improve the railway share rate.The results show that road-oriented shippers greatly prefer roads when choosing freight mode,which can be explained by the fact that under the influence of inertia,these shippers tend to underestimate the cost spent on roads and overestimate the“door-to-door”transportation time by railways.Therefore,in order to effectively make the freight mode shift from roads to railways,it is necessary to optimize transportation organizations,so as to reduce the“door-to-door”transportation time and cost by railways,In addition,the inertial effect shall be eliminated by strengthening marketing and promotion,improving information transparency,and maintaining stable freight rates.

关 键 词：“公转铁” 货运方式选择 RP与SP数据融合 离散选择建模 惯性效应 

分 类 号：F530.6[经济管理—产业经济] U294.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]