可靠性系统工程理论研究回顾与展望  

Reliability systems engineering:A research review and prospect

作　　者：康锐[1,2] 王自力 KANG Rui;WANG Zili(School of Reliability and Systems Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Key Laboratory on Reliability and Environmental Engineering Technology,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学可靠性与系统工程学院,北京100191 [2]可靠性与环境工程技术国防科技重点实验室,北京100191

出　　处：《航空学报》2022年第10期172-182,共11页Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica

摘　　要：可靠性系统工程理论是20世纪末期我国可靠性领域的重大理论与实践创新成果。历经30余年的发展,可靠性系统工程理论已日臻完善,逐渐成为指导我国可靠性技术与实践发展的理论基础。本文系统性回顾了可靠性系统工程的发展历程和技术脉络,全面介绍了可靠性系统工程的概念内涵,重点分析了可靠性系统工程理论与技术框架、综合集成理论体系、确信可靠性理论等研究成果。在此基础上,从可靠性系统工程向可靠性系统科学演变的角度,介绍国内外的研究和讨论情况,并从哲学角度分析了可靠性科学存在的合法性。最后,提出了可靠性系统工程理论的发展设想,展望了可靠性系统科学与工程新学科的发展愿景。The reliability systems engineering theory is a major theoretical and practical innovation in the field of reliability in China at the end of the 20 th century. After over 30 years of development, it has been significantly refined and gradually become an important fundamental theory in the development of reliability technology and practice. This paper systematically reviews the existing reliability systems engineering theories, methods and techniques, and provides research foresight and future prospects for the development of theories and construction of new disciplines. Firstly, the origin and basic concepts of reliability systems engineering theories are reviewed, and the research methods of reliability systems engineering are introduced. Secondly, the technical framework and comprehensive integration system of reliability systems engineering are summarized, and the development process of reliability systems engineering is presented. On this basis, the latest reliability science achievement of the belief reliability theory is briefly introduced from the perspective of the evolution of reliability systems engineering to reliability systems science, and the validity of reliability science is analyzed philosophically. Finally, the development prospects of reliability systems engineering theory is proposed, and the bright vision of the new discipline of reliability systems science and engineering is foreseen.

关 键 词：可靠性 可靠性系统工程 确信可靠性 可靠性系统科学与工程 技术科学 

分 类 号：V37[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程] V57[自然科学总论—系统科学] N94