四川盆地极端降水事件时空变化特征及未来趋势分析  

Analysis on Spatiotemporal Change Characteristics and Future Trends of Extreme Precipitation Events in Sichuan Basin

作　　者：刘子堂 李谢辉 杨静坤 LIU Zitang;LI Xiehui;YANG Jingkun(Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2022年第4期456-463,共8页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：科技部第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究基金资助项目(2019QZKK0105);四川省科技计划资助项目(2021YJ0025);2021年省级大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目(S202110621045)。

摘　　要：为减少极端降水事件对四川盆地造成的损失,利用1970-2019年四川盆地内14个气象站点的逐日降水资料,通过选用和计算9个极端降水指数,对这些指数进行线性回归分析、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、滑动T检验、小波分析、地理因子相关分析和R/S预测等,对四川盆地近50年来极端降水事件的时空变化特征和未来趋势进行分析。结果表明:(1)近50年来盆地内的降水趋势主要是以大雨和暴雨日数的增加为主,中雨日数虽有下降但变化很小,降水频率和降水强度呈现东多西少的空间分布,但从强降水量来看,西部部分地区的强降水量更大;(2)盆地内的极端降水事件呈现增加趋势,6个极端降水指数存在突变年,其突变主要发生在20世纪80年代和21世纪的10年代前后,盆地内极端降水指数的显著周期约为2~7年;(3)极端降水指数与地理因子有关,自东向西,自北向南,海拔高度越高,极端降水指数变化越大;(4)在未来时期,四川盆地的降水量总体在减少,但极端降水和降水强度在增加。In order to reduce the losses caused by extreme precipitation events in Sichuan Basin,this paper mainly used the daily precipitation data of 14 meteorological stations in Sichuan Basin from 1970 to 2019.Nine extreme precipitation indices were selected and calculated,and these indexes were analyzed by linear regression analysis,Mann-Kendall trend test,sliding T test,wavelet analysis,correlation analysis with geographical factors and R/S prediction.The temporal and spatial variation characteristics and future trends of extreme precipitation events in Sichuan Basin in recent 50 years were analyzed.The results show that:(1) The trend of precipitation in the basin in the past 50 years was mainly based on the increase of the number of heavy rain and rainstorm days.Although the number of moderate rain days had declined,the change was very small.The spatial distribution of precipitation frequency and intensity was more in the east and less in the west,but from the perspective of heavy precipitation,the amount of heavy precipitation in some parts of the west was greater;(2) The extreme precipitation events in the basin show an increasing trend,and the six extreme precipitation indexes have mutation years,which mainly occurred in the 1980 s and the decade of the 21 st century;The significant period of extreme precipitation index in the basin is about 2-7 years;(3) The extreme precipitation index is related to geographic factors.From east to west and from north to south,the higher the altitude,the greater the change of extreme precipitation index;(4) In the future,the precipitation in Sichuan Basin will decrease,but the extreme precipitation and precipitation intensity will increase.

关 键 词：应用气象学 极端气候 极端降水指数 时空变化特征 HURST指数 四川盆地 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]