不同电压等级直线塔线路覆冰拉力值预警模型及核密度概率估计研究  

Early Warning Model and Kernel Density Probability Estimation of Icing Tension Value of Tangent Tower Lines with Different Voltage Levels

作　　者：吴建蓉 姜苏 黄欢 彭赤 杜昊 WU Jianrong;JIANG Su;HUANG Huan;PENG Chi;DU Hao(Guizhou Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Electric Power Research Institute,Guiyang 550000,China;Power China Guizhou Electric Power Design&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550000,China;Guizhou Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550000,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,贵阳550000 [2]中国电建集团贵州电力设计研究院有限公司,贵阳550000 [3]贵州电网有限责任公司,贵阳550000

出　　处：《电瓷避雷器》2022年第5期199-204,共6页Insulators and Surge Arresters

基　　金：贵州电网有限责任公司科技项目(编号:GZKJXM20182251)。

摘　　要：针对目前电力部门根据线路覆冰比值进行融冰的业务需求,且目前覆冰比值均是根据在线监测终端拉力值反算出冰厚,但计算模型所涉及到参数较多,导致模型准确率依赖性较高,同时国内外缺乏利用拉力值对线路覆冰预警研究。因此,从线路力学角度出发,建立冰期直线塔线路受力分析模型,以至到达根据拉力阈值直接判断线路融冰预警、启动融冰条件的目的。首先按照覆冰比值0.3、0.5两种条件对各电压等级线路拉力阈值进行计算,并对拉力比值进行定义;其次采用核密度概率估计算法,分析拉力比值统计学规律;最后利用一次寒潮天气过程3条覆冰严重线路验证拉力比值准确性。研究表明:110 kV、220 kV、500 kV线路融冰预警拉力比值分别为1.55、1.26、1.21,启动融冰拉力比值分别为1.96、1.41、1.43;对实际案例分析中给出的3条线路融冰预警拉力比值与实际观测资料相对误差分别为2.58%、0.81%、1.65%。本研究有效的克服现有通过覆冰比值进行线路融冰预警所存在的缺陷,给出了较为准确的不同电压等级线路融冰预警拉力比值条件,能够有效的运用于防冰、抗冰实际业务工作中。The power sector needs to melt ice according to the line icing ratio. The icing ratio is based on the tension value of online monitoring terminal to calculate the ice thickness. However, the calculation model involves many parameters, resulting in a high dependence on the accuracy of the model. At the same time, there is a lack of early warning research on line icing using the tension value at home and abroad. Therefore, from the point of view of line mechanics, the author establishes the force analysis model of the line tower in the ice age, so as to reach the purpose of judging the line ice melting warning and starting the ice melting conditions directly according to the pull threshold. Firstly, the tension threshold value of each voltage level line is calculated according to the ice coverage ratio of 0.3 and 0.5, and the tension ratio is defined;secondly, the statistical law of the tension ratio is analyzed by using the kernel function probability estimation algorithm;finally, the accuracy of the tension ratio is verified by using three lines with severe ice coverage in a cold wave weather process. The results show that: the ice melting early warning pull ratio of 110 kV, 220 kV and 500 kV lines is 1.55, 1.26 and 1.21 respectively, and the start-up ice melting pull ratio is 1.96, 1.41 and 1.43 respectively;the relative error between the ice melting early warning pull ratio of the three lines given in the actual case analysis and the actual observation data is 2.58%, 0.81% and 1.65%, respectively. The studies how to overcome the defects of the current line ice melting warning through icing ratio, and gives the more accurate tension ratio conditions of line ice melting warning at different voltage levels, which can be effectively used in the actual business work of anti ice and anti ice.

关 键 词：拉力 融冰预警 核函数 概率密度 覆冰 

分 类 号：TM752[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]