基于STAMP模型的远海勘探作业反恐应急过程安全分析  

Safety analysis of anti-terrorism emergency response in offshore exploration based on STAMP model

作　　者：韩玉龙 李文拓 胡瑾秋[2] 曹扬[2] 樊建春[2] 冯凌铵 HAN Yu-long;LI Wen-tuo;HU Jin-qiu;CAO Yang;FAN Jian-chun;FENG Ling-an(Hainan Energy Ltd.of China National Offshore Oil Corporation,Haikou 570000,China;College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]中海油海南能源有限公司,海口570000 [2]中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院,北京102249

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第5期2703-2710,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52074323);中国石油大学(北京)科研基金项目(ZX20200137);南海远海勘探作业应急保障体系研究(2020/F/QT(KY-01)-01)。

摘　　要：随着近海油气勘探技术体系趋于成熟,远海油气田的勘探开发逐渐受到关注。远海作业面临的威胁主要包括外方渔船干扰、海盗和恐怖主义活动。基于STAMP模型,构建针对已有远海勘探作业反恐应急响应流程的分层安全控制结构。从系统论出发,将安全视为控制问题,从物理层、基础层和运营层分别分析了应急过程中可能存在的失效因素、不安全控制、安全需求和心理致因。同时,使用事故树模型和FRAM模型对应急流程的失效致因进行了分析。将3种模型的分析结果进行对比发现,STAMP模型对反恐应急流程中失效致因的识别能力相较于事故树法提高了133.3%;和FRAM模型相比,其在人员心理致因方面的分析结果更加全面。The threats to offshore exploration mainly come from three aspects,interference by foreign fishing vessels,piracy and terrorist activities.To reduce the consequences of terrorist attacks on offshore exploration,a hierarchical safety control structure of the existing anti-terrorism emergency response process of offshore exploration is built,which is based on the stamp model.Starting from the system theory,safety is regarded as a control problem.The decision-making environment,the possible failure factors,unsafe control,safety needs,and psychological causes of anti-terrorism emergency response in the emergency process are analyzed from three layers including the physical layer,basic layer,and operation layer.Besides,a fault tree model is built to analyze the cause of the top event of"anti-terrorism emergency failure",from the two aspects of"failure to start emergency response"and"failure of emergency response event",and the corresponding basic causes are obtained;Dividing the anti-terrorism emergency process into different functional modules,a FRAM model is built according to the input-output relationships between modules.Then we analyze the causes of the phenomenon that the result named“emergency end”cannot be output in the model.Compared with the analysis results of the three models(fault tree model,STAMP model,and FRAM model),it is found that the three models perform well in identifying the causes of equipment failure and lack of management,and the identification results are consistent,but only stamp model can effectively identify the psychological causes of personnel.The identification ability of the STAMP model for failure causes in the anti-terrorism emergency process is 133.3%higher than that of the fault tree method;Compared with the FRAM model,the STAMP model analysis results in personnel psychological causes are more comprehensive,providing reference suggestions for the preparation and optimization of anti-terrorism emergency response and emergency plan for offshore exploration.

关 键 词：安全系统学 海上设施 反恐怖行动 应急响应 STAMP模型 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TE58[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]