2010-2019年辽宁省沈阳市猩红热发病与气象因素的关联性分析  

Correlation analysis between incidence of scarlet fever and meteorological factors, Shenyang city, Liaoning province, 2010 to 2019

作　　者：王孟颖 张昭玉 张金 朱玉琴 杨志星 高巍 陈会杰[2] 孙百军[2] WANG Meng-ying;ZHANG Zhao-yu;ZHANG Jin;ZHU Yu-qin;YANG Zhi-xing;GAO Wei;CHEN Hui-jie;SUN Bai-jun(Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,China Medical University,Shenyang,Liaoning,110000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]中国医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,辽宁沈阳110000 [2]沈阳市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2022年第10期734-738,共5页Preventive Medicine Tribune

基　　金：辽宁省沈阳市科技计划项目(YJ2020-9-017)。

摘　　要：目的 探讨2010-2019年辽宁省沈阳市猩红热发病与气象因素的关联,为制定有效的猩红热防控策略提供参考依据。方法 收集2010-2019年辽宁省沈阳市猩红热日发病数据及同期的气象数据,应用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)分析气象因素与猩红热发病之间的关联。结果 2010-2019年沈阳市共报告猩红热病例18 772例,年均发病率为25.67/10万;其中男性11 240例、女性7 532例,男女比为1.49∶1。发病主要集中于2~10岁人群。职业以幼托儿童、学生及散居儿童为主。相关分析结果显示,平均气温和平均相对湿度与猩红热发病呈负相关(r分别为-0.06、-0.15,P<0.05);平均风速与猩红热发病呈正相关(r=0.04,P<0.05),平均气压、日降水量及日照时数与猩红热发病无统计学关联(r分别为0.02、-0.02、-0.02,P>0.05)。DLNM结果显示,当气温高于11℃时,猩红热发病增加,但此效应为即时效应,随着滞后天数的增加,猩红热发病迅速下降;当气温低于-10℃时,猩红热发病也会增加,且存在3 d的滞后时间;干燥气象条件下猩红热发病较高,随着相对湿度的增加,猩红热发病降低;平均风速<2 m/s时,其对猩红热发病呈保护效应,风速>4 m/s、滞后时间为5~10 d时,为猩红热发病的危险因素。结论 2010-2019年辽宁省沈阳市猩红热发病与平均气温、平均相对湿度及平均风速存在非线性关系,且具有不同程度的滞后效应。Objective To explore the correlation between the incidence of scarlet fever and meteorological factors during 2010 to 2019 in Shenyang city, Liaoning province, so as to provide reference for the formulation of effective scarlet fever prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on daily meteorological variables and reported scarlet fever incidents in Shenyang city from 2010 to 2019 were collected.Distributed lag non-liner model was applied to explore associations between meteorological factors and scarlet fever incidence. Results During 2010 to 2019,a total of 18 772 scarlet fever cases(11 240 males and 7 532 females) were registered in Shenyang city, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.49∶1 and an average annual incidence of 25.67/10~5.The age of onset was mainly 2 to 10 years.Kindergarten children, students and scattered children were the most common occupations.Spearman correlation analysis indicated that daily mean temperature, relative humidity were reversely correlated with scarlet fever(rwas-0.06,-0.15,respectively, P<0.05),while mean wind speed presented a positive correlation(r=0.04,P<0.05);however, mean atmospheric pressure, daily precipitation, and sunshine hours were not statistically correlated with scarlet fever(rwas 0.02,-0.02,-0.02,respectively, P>0.05).Distributed lag non-liner model revealed that the onset risk of scarlet fever increased when the temperature was higher than 11 ℃,but the effect was immediate.With the increase of lag days, the onset risk of scarlet fever decreased rapidly.When the temperature was lower than-10 ℃,the onset risk of scarlet fever also increased, and this positive effect was lasted for 3 days.The onset risk of scarlet fever was higher under dry weather condition, but decreased with the increase of relative humidity.When the mean wind speed was less than 2 m/s, it had a protective effect on the onset of scarlet fever;however, when the mean wind speed was more than 4 m/s and lag time was 5 to 10 d, they were the risk factors of scarlet fever. Conclusion There was

关 键 词：猩红热 气象因素 分布滞后非线性模型 关联性 滞后效应 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]