大国竞争的根源:基于报酬递增机制的分析  

The Roots of Great Power Competition:An Analysis Based on the Increasing Returns Mechanism

作　　者：田野[1] Tian Ye

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国社会科学》2022年第9期85-103,206,共20页Social Sciences in China

摘　　要：地缘、技术和国际制度是大国竞争的三大重要领域。在对大国关系的分析上,无论均势理论还是霸权理论都依赖于报酬递减的假设,忽视了报酬递增的可能性。报酬递增在地理区位、技术演进和制度变迁上广泛发挥作用,大国关系中的报酬递增机制相应体现在大国间地缘竞争、技术竞争和国际制度竞争中。对初始优势在报酬递增机制的作用下转化为长期优势的理性预期促使大国之间进入竞争状态,无论这些大国是对手还是盟友。作为报酬递增的具体发生机制,协调效应作用于地缘竞争、技术竞争与国际制度竞争中,学习效应作用于技术竞争与国际制度竞争中,适应性预期则作用于国际制度竞争中。从17世纪英荷争夺海洋霸权直至当下美欧在国际投资仲裁机制上竞争的案例均展示了大国竞争源自报酬递增的逻辑。Geography,technology and the international system are the three important areas of great power competition.In the analysis of great power relations,both the theory of balance of power and the theory of hegemony rely on the assumption of diminishing returns,ignoring the possibility of increasing returns.Increasing returns play a wide range of roles in geographic patterns,technological evolution and institutional change,and the means of increasing returns in great power relations is accordingly reflected in competition among great powers in the areas of geopolitics,technology and international institutions.The rational expectation that an initial advantage will be transformed into a long-term one by increased returns drives the competition among the great powers,whether they are rivals or allies.As a specific means for increasing returns,coordination effects act on competition in geopolitics,technology and international institutions;in learning effects in technological and international institutional competition;and in adaptive expectations in competition in international institutions.Examples going from the British-Dutch competition for maritime hegemony in the 17th century to the current US-European competition in international investment arbitration demonstrate the logic of great power competition stemming from increasing returns.

关 键 词：报酬递增 地缘竞争 技术竞争 国际制度竞争 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] D50[经济管理—世界经济] D81[政治法律—政治学]