大型医用设备配置预测滞后计量模型设计与研究  

Design and research of lag metrology model for large-scale medical equipment allocation prediction

作　　者：行辰 邢宝心 张维 林洪义 山其君 周君 XING Chen;XING Bao-xin;ZHANG Wei(Department of Medical Engineering,Peking Union Medical College Hospital,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences,Beijing 100730,China.;不详)

机构地区：[1]中国医学科学院北京协和医院医学工程处,北京100730

出　　处：《中国医学装备》2022年第11期143-149,共7页China Medical Equipment

基　　金：中国卫生经济学会卫生健康经济管理第二十二批重点研究课题(CHEA2122040101)“大型医用设备配置管理前瞻性研究”。

摘　　要：目的:设计基于现实逻辑和预测方法科学有效的大型医用设备配置预测滞后计量模型,预测数年后不同区域各类设备参考配置数量。方法:以2020年全国各省公立医院门诊服务诊疗人次和住院患者手术人次为因变量,2015年各省经济发展、生产消费、卫生服务、人口及地理等相关指标为自变量设计大型医用设备配置预测滞后计量模型,采用因子分析与多元逐步回归相结合的方法,应用大型医用设备配置预测滞后计量模型对区域医疗机构检查(治疗)需求进行预测,由供需平衡关系确定医疗机构各类设备的参考配置数量。结果:在预测结果中2021-2025年,全国范围内数年后设备参考配置数量中需增配64排及以上X射线计算机断层扫描(CT)3949台,1.5T及以上磁共振(MR)4425台,正电子发射断层扫描与计算机断层扫描(PET/CT)392台,手术机器人491台,直线加速器1544台。结论:大型医用设备配置预测滞后计量模型能够为全国各区域大型医用设备配置规划提供决策建议。Objective:Based on realistic logic and prediction method,a scientific and effective lag metrology model for largescale medical equipment configuration prediction was designed to predict the number of reference configurations of various types of equipment in different regions after several years.Methods:The lag metrology model for large-scale medical equipment allocation prediction was designed by taking the number of outpatient services and the number of inpatient surgeriesoperations of each province’s public hospitals across the country in 2020 as the dependent variable,and the relevant taking indicators related toof economic development,production and consumption,health services,population and geography ofin each province in 2015 as the independent variables.The demand for examinations(treatments)in regional medical institutions was predicted by using the method of combining factor analysis and multiple stepwise regression,and the reference allocation amount of various types of equipment in medical institutions was determined according to the supply-demand balance relations.Results:The predicted results show that from 2021 to 2025,3,949 X-ray computed tomography(CT)scanners with a capacity of 64-row and above,4,425 magnetic resonance(MR)with a capacity of 1.5T or above,392 positron emission tomography/computed tomography(PET/CT)scanners and 491 surgical robots and 1,544 sets of linear accelerators need to be additionally allocated across the country.Conclusion:The lag metrology model for large-scale medical equipment allocation prediction can time-lag econometrics modelof Large-scale medical equipment configurationprediction provide decision-making suggestions for large medical equipment configuration planning in different regions of the country.

关 键 词：大型医用设备 配置预测 滞后计量模型 因子分析 多元逐步回归 

分 类 号：R197.39[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]