阿克苏地区苹果始花期预报模型研究  

Study on Forecasting Model of Flowering Period of Apple in Aksu County

作　　者：刘海蓉[1] 冯贝贝 张振军 梅闯[2] 吴芳[1] 闫鹏[2] LIU Hairong;FENG Beibei;ZHANG Zhengjun;MEI Chuang;WU Fang;YAN Peng(Aksu Meteorological Bureau,Aksu 843000,China;Institute of Horticulture Crops,Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Urumqi 830091,China;Aksu Forestry Technology Promotion Service Center,Aksu 843000,China.)

机构地区：[1]阿克苏地区气象局,新疆阿克苏843000 [2]新疆农业科学院园艺作物研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830091 [3]阿克苏地区林业技术推广中心,新疆阿克苏843000

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2022年第4期139-143,共5页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：新疆气象科学技术研究与应用技术开发项目(MS202016);浙江省气象科技计划项目(2019YB19);国家现代苹果产业技术体系建设专项(CARS-27);国家自然科学基金项目(32060654)。

摘　　要：为更准确地做好阿克苏地区苹果始花期预测,便于花前采取有效农业措施避开或减轻不利天气影响,利用阿克苏地区2000—2022年苹果始花期观测数据和同期气象资料,统计分析始花期与气象因子的关系,建立预报模型。结果表明:阿克苏地区苹果始花期平均日期为4月11日,最早、最晚始花期相差14 d,近13 a始花期提前约5 d。始花期与开花前气温、不同界限温度积温等关系密切,应用逐步回归方法,得出阿克苏地区苹果始花期预报模型,回代检测中始花期预报值与实际值相差0~2 d的准确率达到80%,2020—2022年始花期预测值与实际值分别相差0、-2、-1 d,可为花期预报气象服务提供理论参考。In order to provide the forecast of the beginning flowering period of apple more accurately in Aksu area,and reference for effective agricultural measures to prevent adverse weather before apple blossom,the key influence factors are statistically analyzed and the forecast model is established,according to the observation data of the beginning flowering period of apple and the meteorological data from 2000 to 2021.The results showed that the average flowering time of apple was on April 11th in Aksu County.The earliest flowering differed 14 days from the latest.And the beginning flowering was about 5 days in advance in recent 13 years.The meteorological factors had obvious influence on the initial flowering period,such as the temperature before flower.By stepwise regression method,the prediction model of the beginning flowering period of apple was established.The accuracy rate of 0-2 d difference between the beginning flowering pridicted value and the actual value in back-generation detection was 80%,and the difference between the predicted value and the actual value in the beginning flowering period from 2020 to 2022 were 0,-2,-1 day,which can provide theoretical reference for the meteorological service of flowering forecast.

关 键 词：阿克苏地区 苹果花期 温度 模型 

分 类 号：S165.21[农业科学—农业气象学]