基于改进TOPSIS模型的甘肃省水资源承载力评价  

Evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gansu Province Based on Improved TOPSIS Model

作　　者：王金星 杨银科[1,2] 盛强[1,2] WANG Jin-xing;YANG Yin-ke;SHENG Qiang(School of Water and Environment,Ministry of Education,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region,Ministry of Education,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学水利与环境学院,陕西西安710054 [2]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第11期35-39,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：中国科学院黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLLQG1933);长安大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(300102292903);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2017JM4018,2021SF-497)。

摘　　要：为科学诊断甘肃省水资源承载力状态、提高甘肃省经济高质量发展与水资源承载力之间的适应能力,根据甘肃省1999~2020年统计资料,从水资源、经济社会、生态环境三方面构建评价体系,运用改进层次分析法(IAHP)和熵权法组合赋权,并利用改进TOPSIS模型和障碍度模型评价其水资源承载能力及定量化分析诊断障碍因子。研究结果表明,甘肃省水资源承载力状况改善明显,1999~2020年整体呈逐渐上升趋势,其中,1999~2015年为低水平波动阶段,2016~2020年转变为快速上升阶段;人均水资源量、人均用水量、年均降水量、产水模数和水功能区水质达标率为水资源承载力的五大障碍因子;甘肃省可通过加强生态环境保护、科学管理水资源等措施提高水资源承载能力。In order to scientifically diagnose the state of water resources carrying capacity and improve the adaptability between high-quality economic development and water resources carrying capacity in Gansu Province, according to the statistical data of Gansu Province from 1999 to 2020, an evaluation system was established from three aspects of water resources, social economy and ecological environment. The improved analytic hierarchy process(IAHP) and entropy weight method were used to determine weight. The improved TOPSIS model and obstacle degree model were adopted to evaluate its water resources carrying capacity and quantitatively diagnose the obstacle factors. The results show that the carrying capacity of water resources in Gansu Province has improved significantly, and it shows a gradual upward trend from 1999 to 2020. Among them, 1999 to 2015 is a low-level fluctuation stage, and 2016 to 2020 is a rapid upward stage;Per capita water resources, per capita water consumption, annual precipitation, water production modulus and water quality compliance rate in water functional areas are the five obstacle factors of water resources carrying capacity. Gansu Province can improve the carrying capacity of water resources by strengthening ecological environment protection and scientific management of water resources.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 改进TOPSIS模型 障碍度 组合赋权 甘肃省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]