基于前景理论的水利工程灰靶投标决策模型与应用  

Grey Target Bidding Decision-making Model and Application of Hydraulic Engineering Based on Prospect Theory

作　　者：周兰庭[1] 李玉菲 ZHOU Lan-ting;LIYu-fei(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2022年第11期176-180,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51209078)。

摘　　要：就水利工程建设项目择优投标问题,考虑水利工程建设中的不确定性因素及决策者对不确定性因素造成损益的接受态度,将前景理论与灰靶决策理论相结合来简化复杂、多层次的投标决策系统,提出了一种基于前景理论的水利工程灰靶投标决策模型。将模型应用于项目实例中,结果表明该方法具有工程适用性。Aiming at the problem of optimal bidding of water conservancy project construction, considering the uncertain factors in water conservancy project construction and the decision maker’s acceptance attitude to the profit and loss caused by uncertain factors, a grey target decision-making model for water conservancy project based on prospect theory is proposed by combining the prospect theory and grey target decision-making theory to simplify the complex and multi-level bidding decision-making system. The model is applied to a project example, and the results show that the method has engineering applicability.

关 键 词：水利工程 投标决策 前景理论 灰靶决策 

分 类 号：TV51[水利工程—水利水电工程] F284[经济管理—国民经济]