阿富汗塔利班执政时期毒品问题分析及我国口岸风险防控研究  

A Study on Drugs Problems in Afghanistan and Risk Management at Ports of China During the Interim Government of Taliban

作　　者：郑廷彰 宋继军 索金玲 罗旭丹 苏占海 曹爱君 周玮 钱辉 孙磊 Zheng Tingzhang;Song Jijun;Suo Jinling;Luo Xudan;Su Zhanhai;Cao Aijun;Zhou Wei;Qian Hui;Sun Lei

机构地区：[1]乌鲁木齐海关风险防控分局 [2]西安海关风险防控分局

出　　处：《海关与经贸研究》2022年第5期42-55,共14页Journal of Customs and Trade

基　　金：海关总署科研项目“新疆口岸旅检渠道风险特征及防控体系研究”(项目编号:2020HK113)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：塔利班临时政府宣称对阿富汗实施禁毒和反恐措施,然而面对内部和外部多方挑战,塔利班临时政府是否有足够的勇气和能力全面禁毒需引起关注。在此背景下针对阿富汗毒品走私我国口岸风险防控策略将成为我们需要认真分析和研究的中长期课题。本文通过文献研究法、比较研究法和综合归纳法对阿富汗毒品的种植、生产、查获、贩毒组织、贩运渠道、手法和禁毒政策等开展分析。结果表明:在新冠疫情防控叠加的影响下,塔利班临时政府难以有效地控制阿富汗毒品走私。口岸仍然是堵截阿富汗毒品走私入境的关键节点和前沿阵地,但传统贩运路线发生了较大转变。受航空和公路旅行限制,传统空运和公路运输毒品的风险下降,转而以国际贸易为掩护,通过海运和铁路贩运走私进入我国的风险显著增加。本文从制度体系、信息情报、风险分析、风险研判、管控评估和制毒化学品控制等维度,综合运用风险管理思维和方法,提出了在口岸节点堵截阿富汗毒品向我国渗透的措施和建议,以维护我国国门安全。Anti-drug policies and anti-terrorism measures were implemented by the Taliban interim government of Afghanistan.However,in the face of internal and external challenges,it has become a concern whether the Taliban interim government has enough courage and ability to comprehensively fight drugs.Against this background,risk prevention and control strategy for drug smuggling from Afghanistan will become a medium-and long-term topic that we need to analyze and study.Through literature research,comparative research and comprehensive induction,an analysis has been conducted on drug cultivation,production and seizure,drug trafficking organizations,channels and methods and anti-drug policies adopted in Afghanistan.The results show that under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic,drug smuggling in Afghanistan cannot be effectively controlled by the interim Taliban government.Ports are still the key nodes and frontiers for blocking the entry of drug smuggling in Afghanistan,but the traditional trafficking routes have undergone major changes.Although the risk of air and road transport of drugs has decreased,that of smuggling by sea and railway has increased significantly.In particular,the prevention and control pressures at the ports of Guangzhou,Alashankou and Khorgos are bound to increase.Risk management approaches are applied in the analysis from the dimensions of institutional system,information intelligence,risk analysis,risk evaluation,control evaluation,and control of precursors.In addition,measures and suggestions for blocking the penetration of Afghan drugs into our country at port are put forward to maintain national security.

关 键 词：阿富汗 毒品走私 口岸管理 海关风险管理 国门安全 

分 类 号：D631.4[政治法律—政治学] D737.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]