未来高比例可再生能源发展路线分析  

Analytics on the Roadmap of the High Penetration Renewable Energy in the Future

作　　者：陈音彤 张均弛 陈宇洋 刘晓康 毛科伟 潘志伟 CHEN Yintong;ZHANG Junchi;CHEN Yuyang;LIU Xiaokang;MAO Kewei;PAN Zhiwei(State Grid Changzhou Power Supply Company,Changzhou 213003,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]国网江苏省电力有限公司常州供电分公司,江苏常州213003

出　　处：《电力大数据》2022年第7期62-70,共9页Power Systems and Big Data

摘　　要：为了电网在“碳中和”“碳达峰”的政策指导下合理消纳新能源,面向未来充分利用新能源节能减排、保护环境的需求,本文通过对不同发展场景下的电网规模及新能源消纳能力进行建模和仿真,利用大数据进行了多维场景下新能源占比与电网规模制约关系研究,探索出2030年到2050年电网规模和新能源消纳能力发展趋势。同时以数据可视化的方式对广域互联形态格局与增强区域互联形态格局下电网演化进行了对比分析,聚焦2050水平年新能源消纳电量指标,比选得出有利于高比例可再生能源接入的合理电网格局与规模:采用广域电网互联的形态格局,进一步扩大电网互联互济范围;在源荷结构方面按照核电、海上风电大发展场景路线演化。为未来高比例可再生能源发展路线提出依据和指引。This article is based on the “carbon neutrality” and “carbon peaking” related policy and the needs of absorbing as much renewable energy as possible reasonably, making full use of renewable energy sources to save energy, reducing emissions, and protecting the environment in the future. By modeling and simulating the scale of power grids and the capacity of renewable energy absorbing in different development scenarios and using big data to carry out the research on the relationship between the proportion of renewable energy and the scale of power grid in multi-dimensional scenarios, it explores the power grid scale from 2030 to 2050 and the development trend of renewable energy consumption capacity. At the same time, the power grid evolution under the pattern of multi-area interconnection and enhanced regional interconnection pattern was compared and analyzed by means of data visualization, focusing on the level of annual renewable energy power absorbing indicators, a reasonable grid pattern and scale that are conducive to the access of a high penetration renewable energy was obtained: adopting the pattern of multi-area grid interconnection to further expand the scope of grid interconnection and mutual assistance;developing large scale of nuclear power and offshore wind power in terms of source-load structure. It aims to provide theoretical basis and guidelines for high penetration renewable energy development in the future.

关 键 词：可再生能源 新能源消纳 大数据 制约关系 电网规模 形态格局 发展路线 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]