双边关系对中国农产品贸易流通效能的影响研究  

A Research on the Impact of Bilateral Relations on the Effectiveness of Agricultural Trade Distribution in China

作　　者：纪文杰 蒋琴儿[1] JI Wenjie;JIANG Qiner

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州311300

出　　处：《世界农业》2022年第12期54-65,共12页World Agriculture

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学一般项目“中国林产品贸易潜力、结构重构及相关政策研究”(17YJA790038);浙江省科技厅软科学项目“进口对浙江农业全要素生产率增长的影响机制研究”(2019C35075)。

摘　　要：本文构建时变随机前沿引力模型,基于贸易流通效率和贸易流通潜力两个方面,实证分析了2002—2020年包括双边政治关系、文化距离、制度距离、是否签订自由贸易协定(FTA)以及是否加入“一带一路”倡议等变量在内的双边关系对中国农产品进出口、出口及进口流通效能的影响,测算贸易流通潜力并依据FTA和“一带一路”倡议进行分析。结果表明:良好的双边政治关系增加了农产品贸易流通效率的饱和度,提高了贸易流通效能;FTA和“一带一路”倡议对农产品贸易流通效率和双边关系发展具有积极的推动作用;制度距离、文化距离与农产品贸易流通效率显著正相关,缩小文化距离对贸易的促进作用更大;中国与各国农产品贸易流通潜力具有显著差异性,尤其对发达经济体出口存有较大的贸易扩展空间。对此,中国应顺应双边关系变化,动态调整农产品对外贸易政策,以良好的双边关系推进贸易关系的稳定发展,持续挖掘贸易流通潜力,提高贸易流通效能。This paper constructs a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to empirically analyze the impact of bilateral relations including bilateral political relations,cultural distance,institutional distance,whether to sign free trade agreement(FTA)and whether to sign“The Belt and Road”agreement on China’s agricultural products from 2002 to 2020 based on two aspects:trade flow efficiency and trade flow potential.The impact of bilateral relations,including bilateral political relations,cultural distance,institutional distance,whether or not to sign FTA and whether to sign“The Belt and Road”agreement,on the flow efficiency of China’s agricultural products from 2002 to 2020 is analyzed.The results show that:good bilateral political relations increase the saturation of agricultural trade flow efficiency and improve the trade flow efficiency;FTA and“The Belt and Road”agreement have a positive effect on agricultural trade flow efficiency and bilateral relations development;institutional distance and cultural distance are significantly and positively related to agricultural trade flow efficiency.The potential of agricultural trade flow between China and other countries is significantly different,and there is more room for trade expansion,especially for exports to developed economies.In this regard,China must respond to the changes in bilateral relations,dynamically adjust its agricultural foreign trade policy,promote the stable development of trade relations with good bilateral relations,continue to tap the potential of trade flows and improve the efficiency of trade flows.

关 键 词：双边关系 农产品贸易 贸易流通效能 时变随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752