生猪价格波动与应对策略研究——以江苏省为例  

Fluctuations in pig price and correspongding measures—a case study of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：屈浩然 胡浩[1] 梁宇亮 戈阳[1] QU Haoran;HU Hao;LIANG Yuliang;GE Yang(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《畜牧与兽医》2022年第11期129-137,共9页Animal Husbandry & Veterinary Medicine

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(19AGL020)。

摘　　要：2021年全国生猪与猪肉价格出现大幅下跌。原因包括生猪产能已经大致恢复到疫情前水平,政府扶持下龙头企业产能的快速扩张,居民对猪肉需求下降,饲料价格上涨以及猪肉进口量的增加。预计未来生猪价格将会缓慢下降,我国能繁母猪存栏量将会缓慢上涨。建议进一步优化价格预警机制和猪肉储备机制,适度调控稳定生猪市场价格走势;完善生猪生产逆周期调控机制,继续扶持生猪适度规模养殖,稳定生猪产能;重点突破转型发展,推进降本提质增效,增强抵御价格波动能力;进一步完善财政金融支持政策,创新生猪保险模式,降低生产经营风险。In 2021,the national pig and pork prices fell sharply,for which the reasons included the recovery of pig production capacity to the pre-epidemic levels,the rapid expansion of production capacity of leading enterprises supported by the government,the reduced demand for pork by the residents,the rising feed prices and the increased pork imports.It is expected that the price of live pigs will decline slowly in the future and that the number of breeding sows in China will rise slowly.It is therefore suggested measures should be taken to optimize the early price warning mechanism and pork reserve mechanism in the future so as to moderate regulation and stability of the trend in pig market price,to improve the counter-cyclical regulation mechanism of pig production and continue supporting pig breeding on an appropriate scale to stabilize pig productivity,to focus on transformational development to reduce costs,to raise quality and increase efficiency to strengthen the ability to withstand price fluctuations,to improve fiscal and financial support policies,and to innovate the pig insurance model to reduce risks in production and operation.

关 键 词：生猪市场 猪肉价格 价格波动 应对策略 预测 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]