挤入抑或替代:家庭养老、社会养老对个人养老影响研究  

“Crowding in”or“Substitution”:A Study on the Effect of Family Support and Social Security on Personal Pension

作　　者：范洪敏[1,2] 徐晶 穆怀中[1] Fan Hong-min;Xu Jingl;Mu Huai-zhong(School of Public Management Liaoning university,Shenyang,110136,China;Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian,116025,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学公共管理学院,沈阳110136 [2]东北财经大学应用经济学博士后流动站,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《西北人口》2022年第6期40-51,共12页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目:“新三支柱‘橄榄型’可持续发展养老制度优化与设计”(71731007);国家社科基金重大项目:“中国人口老龄化对经济增长的影响路径与政策选择研究”(20&ZD097);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目:“环境规制、技能溢价与中国经济高质量发展”(19YJC790025);辽宁大学应用经济学世界一流学科建设培育项目(2021PYJSJ05;2021PYLW228;2021PYZZ116)。

摘　　要：回答家庭养老、社会养老对个人养老存在挤入还是替代效应是建立和完善第三支柱个人养老金制度,构建多层次养老保障体系的基础。文章基于新三支柱橄榄型可持续发展养老制度调查数据,运用Logit和Probit模型分析家庭结构、养老保险参与对居民个人养老储蓄意愿影响以尝试对上述问题进行回答。研究结果表明:(1)仅有一个子女和需要赡养老人数量较多的居民个人养老储蓄意愿更强;(2)希望提高养老保险缴费个人比例并不能显著提高个人养老储蓄意愿,但父母参加社会养老保险能显著提高个人养老储蓄意愿;(3)家庭结构、养老保险参与对个人养老储蓄意愿影响存在性别、年龄、收入、户口等异质性。整体来说,家庭结构小型化、核心化带来的家庭养老功能的弱化会激发个人养老储蓄意愿而社会养老由于替代了家庭养老部分功能同样对个人养老存在挤入效应。因此应在提高居民个人养老储蓄意愿,推动第三支柱养老金制度完善的同时,注重家庭养老、社会养老与个人养老等养老模式之间的协调。To answer whether there is a crowding-in or crowding-out effect of family support and social Security on personal pension is the basis for establishing and improving the third pillar personal pension system and building a multi-level pension security system.Based on Survey data of the new three-pillar olive sustainable pension system,this article attempts to answer the above questions from the perspective of family structure and social security for residents’personal pension savings plan using Logit and Probit model.The results show that:Families with a single-child and many elderly people have a stronger personal pension savings plan.(2)Hoping to increase the individual percentage of pension contributions does not significantly increase individuals’personal pension savings plan,but parents’partici⁃pation in social endowment pension can significantly increase their personal pension savings plan.(3)There are gen⁃der,age,income,and household registration heterogeneity in family structure and social security for personal pension savings plan.Overall,the weakening of the family support function due to the miniaturization and nucleation of family structure will stimulate the willingness of personal pension savings plan,while social security has a crowding-in effect on personal pension due to the part substitution of the family support function.Therefore,we should increase residents’willingness to save for their personal pensions and promote the establishment of the third pillar pension system,while pay more attention to the coordination of different models of old-age security system.

关 键 词：家庭结构 社会保障 个人养老储蓄意愿 第三支柱 

分 类 号：C913.7[经济管理]