“一带一路”倡议与沿线中国城市经济增长——基于PSM-DID方法的实证研究  

The“Belt and Road”Initiative and Economic Growth of Cities in China along the“Belt and Road”——An Empirical Study Based on the PSM-DID Method

作　　者：刘雨彤 LIU Yutong(Anhui University of Chinese Medicine,Hefei,Anhui 230012)

机构地区：[1]安徽中医药大学,安徽合肥230012

出　　处：《中国商论》2022年第23期1-6,共6页China Journal of Commerce

摘　　要：作为“国家级顶层合作倡议”的“一带一路”,自2013年习近平总书记首次提出,对我国乃至沿线国家都产生了深远影响。本文选取39个“一带一路”国内沿线城市和120个非沿线城市累计159个城市2007—2021年的面板数据,就“一带一路”倡议对沿线城市的经济增长效应进行了实证研究。首先采取PSM(倾向得分匹配法)获得无系统差异的两组样本,其次运用DID法,针对“一带一路”倡议的经济增长效应进行了评估,且单独考察了发达城市和欠发达城市经济增长效应的异质性,最后使用安慰剂检验方法检验了结果的可靠性。研究表明:“一带一路”倡议对沿线中国城市有显著的正向影响;这种正向影响程度取决于城市经济发展水平,对于发达城市的正向影响大于欠发达城市。The“Belt and Road”initiative,as a“national top-level cooperation initiative”,has had a profound impact on China and the countries along the“Belt and Road”since it was first proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping in 2013.This paper selects the panel data of 159 cities,including 39 domestic cities along the“Belt and Road”and 120 cities not along the“Belt and Road”from 2007 to 2021,and conducts an empirical study on the economic growth effects of the“Belt and Road”initiative on cities along the“Belt and Road”.Firstly,the propensity score matching(PSM)method is used to obtain two groups of samples with no systematic differences.Secondly,the difference-in-differences(DID)method was used to assess the economic growth effects of the“Belt and Road”Initiative,and the heterogeneity of the economic growth effects of developed and less developed cities was examined separately,and finally,the reliability of the results was tested with a placebo test.The study shows that the“Belt and Road”initiative has a significant positive impact on China’s cities along the“Belt and Road”;this positive impact depends on the level of economic development of the cities,and the positive impact is greater for developed cities than for less developed cities.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 经济增长 双重差分 倾向得分匹配 异质性分析 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]