全球化叙事转变与中国经济展望  

The Change of Global Narratives and Forecasts of China’s Economy

作　　者：张平[1] Zhang Ping

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,100836

出　　处：《国外社会科学》2022年第5期43-51,194,195,共11页Social Sciences Abroad

摘　　要：全球化叙事~((1))源于20世纪90年代初,中国以“和平与发展”来叙事全球化,全球化的叙事传播推动全球规制一体化。经济的全球化叙事更主导了各国的分工、合作以及经济规模扩大和效率提高,直接表现为全球经济的高增长与低通胀。2022年,由于新冠肺炎疫情的持续冲击、俄乌冲突导致的地缘政治危机不断加剧,全球各地区纷纷出台区域化协定,欧美则不断推出对峙性产业政策,全球化叙事出现转变。In 2022, due to the continuous impact of the Covid-19 epidemic and the intensifying geopolitical crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, regional agreements have been signed by various regions around the world, and confrontational industrial policies have been launched by Europe and the US. At the same time, global rules have given way to regional alliances, and there has been an irreversible shift in globalization narrative. This shift has altered the pattern of global economic development and division of labor, incorporating more geopolitical, confrontational ideologies and security norms into the economic sphere, increasing economic frictions and triggering a readjustment of global supply and demand. Trade growth is lower than global GDP growth, and the global economy has entered a new pattern of coexistence of “low growth and stubborn inflation”. This poses a serious challenge to the China’s economy. On the one hand, China should maintain its stability and steady economic growth;on the other hand, it should respond to the process of counter-globalization with a high standard opening up,take advantage of the favorable conditions of low domestic inflation, combine short-term stability with long-term development, resolve China’s domestic risks, enhance China’s competitiveness, and promote smooth connectivity between domestic and international circulation.

关 键 词：地缘政治 产业政策 中国经济展望 低通胀 区域化 经济的全球化 一体化 和平与发展 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]