PPP垃圾焚烧发电项目政府补贴模型及实证分析  

Government subsidy model and empirical analysis of PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects

作　　者：李倩[1] 刘玉玲 韦洁琳 LI Qian;LIU Yuling;WEI Jielin(School of Civil Engineering,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,China;School of Engineering Management,Hunan Vocational College of Engineering,Changsha 410100,China)

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410004 [2]湖南工程职业技术学院工程管理学院,湖南长沙410100

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2022年第11期3457-3466,共10页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2017JJ3519)。

摘　　要：因受“垃圾围城”困扰,我国正大力发展公私合营(PPP)垃圾焚烧发电项目。为使相应的政府补贴计算更加准确,调整更加合理,项目发展更加健康,围绕政府补贴计算方法开展相关研究。首先,通过对政府、社会资本和公众等各项目决策主体和决策层级不同利益目标的识别,采用双层规划法(BLPP)建立政府补贴静态初始定价模型。然后,考虑多因素对项目运营的动态影响,利用系统动力学(SD)构建政府补贴动态运营调整模型。最后,静态初始定价与动态运营调整模型二者协同建立形成SD-BLPP政府补贴模型。在此基础上,采用H市PPP垃圾焚烧发电项目的实例数据,运用Vensim软件验证模型的有效性,并通过调整SD-BLPP模型参数,模拟运营环境变化,分析项目效益的波动情况,给出政府补贴调整建议。结果表明,SD-BLPP模型计算出的补贴单价合理,能够优化项目效益结构,可以实现运营条件变化时的项目效益预测和政府补贴动态调整,具有较好的有效性和适用性,为PPP垃圾焚烧发电项目政府补贴提供计算方法和调整建议提供了依据。Because of the Waste Siege, the PPP Waste-to-Energy Incineration Projects have been vigorously developed. In order to make the calculation more accurate, the adjustment more reasonable, and the development of the project more healthy, the research focused on the calculation method of government subsidies. First,through the identification of the interest targets of different decision-making entities and decision-making levels in PPP projects, such as the government, social capital, and the public, the Bi-Level Programming Problem(BLPP) model was established for static initial pricing of government subsidies. Then, considering the dynamic impact of multiple factors on the operation of the project, the system dynamics(SD) model was constructed for the dynamic adjustment of government subsidies. Finally, the above two were combined into the SD-BLPP model. The validity of the model was verified by the Vensim software and the real data of the PPP Waste-toEnergy Incineration Projects in H City. The changes in the operating environment were simulated by adjusting the model parameters. Through the analysis of the fluctuation in project benefits, the recommendation for the adjustment of government subsidies was put forward. The results show that the unit price calculated by the SD-BLPP model is reasonable because it can optimize the structure of project benefits. The model can realize prediction of project benefits and dynamic adjustment of government subsidies when operating conditions change, and it is effective and applicable. It provides a basis for the calculation and adjustment of government subsidies for PPP Waste-to-Energy Incineration Projects.

关 键 词：政府与社会资本合作 政府补贴 垃圾焚烧发电 双层规划法 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]