我国与“一带一路”沿线国家金融风险空间关联网络及传染效应分析  

The Analysis on the Spatial Correlation Network and Contagion Effect of Financial Risk Between China and the Countries Along the“Belt and Road”

作　　者：张帅[1,2] Zhang Shuai

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学金融学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]新疆财政与金融协同创新研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《金融理论与实践》2022年第11期14-25,共12页Financial Theory and Practice

基　　金：新疆自然科学基金青年项目“基于金融市场联动视角的中国与‘一带一路’沿线国家金融风险传染效应研究”(2021D01B29);新疆社会科学基金项目“新疆绿色金融助推产业结构升级的路径及政策研究”(21BJY045);国家自然科学基金项目“高杠杆下的中国财政乘数和财政空间研究”(72063030)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：防范及应对国际金融风险传染已经成为各国关注及当前研究的热点问题。通过构建我国与“一带一路”沿线国家2013年至2020年金融风险指数,并采用引力模型及社会网络分析法对该区域金融风险的空间关联特性及网络传染结构进行考察。研究发现:各国家之间金融风险关联关系整体呈现不对称性,网络结构整体较为脆弱,经济发展水平较高的国家更容易处于风险关联网络中的核心位置,同时扮演“中介”及“桥梁”角色。金融风险空间关联网络块模型分析表明第一板块金融风险传染主要集中在板块内部国家之间,而第二、三、四板块相互之间金融风险的传染效应则更为明显。我国作为“风险净溢入”板块的成员,除了防范板块内部其他国家金融风险的输入,同时还要关注来自其他板块国家潜在金融风险的传播。How to prevent and deal with the international financial risk contagion has become a hot issue in the world.By constructing a financial risk index for 2013-2020 for our country and the countries along the“Belt and Road”,the paper also uses gravity model and social network analysis method to study the spatial correlation characteristics and network contagion structure of financial risk in this region.It is found that the financial risk relationship among countries is asymmetric,the network structure is fragile,and countries with higher economic development level are more likely to be at the core of the risk correlation network,play the role of“Intermediary”and“Bridge”at the same time.Block model analysis shows that the financial risk contagion of the first plate is mainly concentrated among the countries within the plate,while the contagion effect of the second,third and fourth plates is more obvious.As a member country of“Risk net spillover”plate,our country should pay attention to the spread of potential financial risks from other countries in addition to guarding against the input of financial risks within the plate.

关 键 词：金融风险 关联网络 “一带一路”沿线国家 传染效应 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]