投资乘数理论拓展的实证分析  

An Empirical Analysis of the Theoretical Expansion of Investment Multiplier

作　　者：高兴佑[1,2] 陈渝 GAO Xingyou;CHEN Yu(School of Economics and Management,Qujing Normal University,Qujing Yunnan 655011;School of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming Yunnan 650093,China)

机构地区：[1]曲靖师范学院经济与管理学院,云南曲靖655011 [2]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650093

出　　处：《曲靖师范学院学报》2022年第6期84-90,共7页Journal of Qujing Normal University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于示能性视角的信息系统有效使用研究:维度、影响因素和形成机制”(71461016)。

摘　　要：《投资乘数影响因素的扩展研究》一文提出了一个扩展的投资乘数公式,这个公式把投资看作收入的函数,从而在公式里引入了边际投资倾向,这样就使得公式从理论上来看更为合理.但投资能否看作收入的线性函数,这个公式在实践中是否合理,尚无实证检验.从文献证据、机理分析和实证检验三个维度证明了投资是收入的线性函数.基于边际分析和回归分析两种方法利用我国最近40年的消费、税收、进口、投资和收入的数据进行了实证分析,比较了理论扩展的结果与传统理论的结果.研究显示:理论扩展得到的乘数比传统理论更大一些;如果选用边际分析法,理论扩展的公式可能会出现一些异常数据,若选用回归分析的方法,得到的结果是比较合理的.An extended investment multiplier formula was put forward in the paper “An Extensive Study of Factors Affecting the Investment Multiplier”, which regarded investment as a function of income, thus introducing marginal propensity of investment into the formula, which made the formula more reasonable in theory. However, there is no empirical test whether investment can be regarded as a linear function of income and whether this formula is reasonable in practice. From the three dimensions of literature evidence, mechanism analysis and empirical test, it is proved that investment is a linear function of income. Based on marginal analysis and regression analysis, this paper makes an empirical analysis using the data of consumption, taxation, import, investment and income in China in the past 40 years, and compares the results of theoretical expansion with those of traditional theories. The research shows that, first, the multiplier obtained by the expansion of the theory is larger than that of the traditional theory;second, if the marginal analysis method is chosen, some abnormal data may appear in the formula of theoretical expansion, but if the method of regression analysis is chosen, the results are reasonable.

关 键 词：投资乘数 理论扩展 投资函数 实证研究 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]