人口集聚、产业结构升级与经济增长——基于云南省的实证分析  

Empirical Study of Population Agglomeration,Industrial Structure Upgrade and Economic Growth in Yunnan

作　　者：代宇杰 熊云飚 DAI Yujie;XIONG Yunbiao(School of Economics,Yunnan Minzu University,Kunming Yunnan 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学经济学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《曲靖师范学院学报》2022年第6期108-114,共7页Journal of Qujing Normal University

基　　金：云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“云南省绿色金融发展对乡村振兴影响的实证研究”(2022Y399);重庆市哲学社会科学规划项目“农村‘三变’改革背景下重庆小农户与现代农业衔接的内在机理和政策选择研究”(2018QNGL25);云南民族大学经济学院研究生资助项目“人口结构变化对云南省经济增长的影响效应研究”.

摘　　要：以1999—2019年云南省州市面板数据为研究基础构建PVAR模型,系统分析了人口集聚、产业结构升级与经济增长之间的互动关系.结果表明:人口集聚与经济增长之间存在相互促进的动态关系,人口集聚对产业结构升级具有较小的抑制作用;产业结构升级与经济增长之间存在相互抑制的动态关系,经济增长对产业结构升级的影响呈“倒U型”.据此,提出了适应人口集聚趋势、优化产业结构以支撑经济高质量发展的建议.This paper builds a PVAR model based on the panel data of cities and counties in Yunnan Province from 1999 to 2019 to systematically analyze the interaction between population agglomeration,industrial structure upgrading and economic growth.The results show that there is a dynamic relationship between population agglomeration and economic growth,and population agglomeration has a small inhibitory effect on the upgrading of industrial structure;there is a dynamic relationship of mutual inhibition between industrial structure upgrading and economic growth;and the impact of economic growth on industrial structure upgrading is"inverted U-shaped".Accordingly,suggestions for adapting to the trend of population agglomeration and optimizing the industrial structure to support high-quality economic development are put forward.

关 键 词：人口集聚 产业结构升级 经济增长 PVAR 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] C924.24[社会学—人口学]