新冠肺炎疫情背景下的量化宽松政策、资产价格与财富再分配  

Quantitative Easing During COVID-19, Asset Price and the Redistribution of Wealth

作　　者：翟东升[1] 王雪莹 朱煜 魏子龙 Di Dongsheng;Wang Xueying;Zhu Yu;Wei Zilong(School of International Studies,Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2022年第10期49-60,共12页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“东亚产业链视角下的中美经贸关系重构”(19BGJ046)资助。

摘　　要：新冠肺炎疫情的暴发对实体经济产生负面影响,主要发达经济体的资产价格却节节攀升。本文基于SV-TVP-VAR模型的实证研究发现:美、欧、日央行激进的量化宽松政策(QE)推动资产价格与实体经济脱节,且风险资产价格上涨的幅度普遍大于安全资产。疫情背景下,美联储QE对资产市场的影响与以往基本持平,对股市和房地产市场的短期影响为历史最高水平;欧洲央行QE提高资产价格的能力较以往显著增强;日本央行QE的影响力不及此前部分时期。2020年年末—2021年年初,美、欧、日资产市场对QE的响应强度普遍达到阶段性峰值。资产价格上涨产生财富再分配效应,在经济体内,富人和穷人的财富占比都有所提升,而中间40%家庭的财富占比却出现萎缩。在国际层面,从资产收益率的角度出发,中国是财富再分配效应的受损者。COVID-19 pandemic has had a negative impact on the global real economy, asset price in advanced economies rose significantly.Our empirical study based on the SV-TVP-VAR model found that since the outbreak of the pandemic, the Quantitative Easing(QE) programs of the Federal Reserve(Fed), the European Central Bank(ECB) and the Bank of Japan(BoJ) greatly increased the asset price, and the price of risky assets generally rose more than safe assets. After the outbreak of the pandemic, the impact of the Fed’s QE on the asset market was basically the same as before, with its short-term impact on the stock market and housing market hitting a new high;the ECB’s QE had greater impact on asset price than before;and the influence of BoJ’s QE was not as strong as that of the early days following President Haruhiko Kuroda’s inauguration. During the period from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, the response of asset markets to QE reached a peak in the US, Eurozone, and Japan. Rising asset prices have produced significant wealth redistribution effects. In the U.S., the Eurozone and Japan, the wealth shares of Top 10% and Bottom 50% both rose, while the share of the Middle 40% fell obviously. At the international level, China was relatively damaged as a conservative investor holding lots of reserves, while economies holding more risky assets benefited from QE’s international redistribution of wealth.This article gave three suggestions to the People’s Bank of China and Chinese investors: keep an eye on the risk of unexpected monetary policy tightening by the Fed, the ECB, and the BOJ;pay attention to the wealth redistribution effect of monetary policy;appropriately reduce the proportion of foreign exchange reserves in China’s overseas assets.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 量化宽松政策 资产价格 财富再分配 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]