隽水河流域土地利用变化对洪水过程的影响  

Impacts of Land Use Change on Flood Processes in the Junshui River Basin

作　　者：翟丽妮 林沛榕 吴凤燕 马丽梅 ZHAI Li-ni;LIN Pei-rong;WU fen-yan;MA li-mei(Hubei Water Resources Research Institute,Wuhan 430070,China;Hubei Water Resources and Hydropower Science and Technology Promotion Center,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省水利水电科学研究院,湖北武汉430070 [2]湖北省水利水电科技推广中心,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2022年第8期1812-1822,共11页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：湖北省水利重点科研项目(HBSLKY201904,HBSLKY201809)。

摘　　要：隽水河流域地处鄂东南地区,是全省的暴雨中心之一,是洪涝灾害频发和多发的地区。为探讨土地利用变化对洪水过程的影响,基于SWAT模型,采用极端土地利用情景分析法,分别计算了林地、居住用地、草地、耕地4种土地利用类型对场次洪水过程的影响。结果表明:(1)SWAT模型在隽水河流域洪水过程模拟中适用性好,通城(二)水文站验证的结果为洪峰合格率达83.33%,确定性系数E大于0.80,决定性系数R~2大于0.9。(2)不同土地利用类型中,居住用地和耕地对洪峰和洪量均有增加作用,其中,居住用地增加更为显著;林地和草地对洪峰和洪量均有削减作用,其中,草地削减更为显著。(3)土地利用类型的改变对中小洪水过程影响的幅度更为显著,而对较大洪水过程影响的幅度却相对较弱。Located in southeastern Hubei province, Junshui River is one of the rainstorm centers in the province, and area with frequent flood disasters. In order to explore the impact of land use change on flood processes, the impacts of forest land, residential land, grassland and cultivated land on flood processes was calculated based on SWAT model and extreme land use scenarios. The results show that:(1)SWAT model has good applicability in flood process simulation of Junshui River Basin. The verification results of Tongcheng(Ⅱ) hydrological station show that the qualified rate of flood peak is 83.33%, the certainty coefficient Eis greater than 0.80 and the deterministic coefficient R~2 is greater than 0.9.(2)In different land use types, flood peak discharge and flood volume were increased by residential land and cultivated land, and the increase of residential land was more significant. Both forest land and grassland have the effect of reducing flood peak and flood volume.(3)The impact of land use type change on small and medium flood processes is more significant, while the impact on large flood processes is relatively weak.

关 键 词：土地利用 SWAT模型 隽水河流域 洪峰流量 洪水总量 

分 类 号：F33[经济管理—产业经济]